Justis Mosqueda – Playmaker Mentality Football and culture united as one. Tue, 23 Aug 2016 15:10:47 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.4.7 /wp-content/uploads/2016/01/cropped-logo-thumb-1-32x32.png Justis Mosqueda – Playmaker Mentality 32 32 Force Players: League-Wide Update /force-players-league-wide-update Sun, 01 May 2016 19:51:49 +0000 /?p=1516 [...]]]> Force Players

Force Players is an athletic threshold based off of combine performances of pass-rushers that I’ve been working on since 2011. It isn’t the end all be all for edge defenders, but it’s close. It works as a healthy risk analysis, based on a sample of the 2005 through 2015 draft classes.

I often get asked if Player X is a Force Player or not, so I decided to make a definitive list for the coming 2016 season, now that the draft is over. I included the the Prodigy status of individual pass-rushers and what their peak sack average is, taken from Force Players: Sack Study.

Prodigy

We can say that there’s a fairly definitive line for success for pass-rushers who are X athletic with X production at X age.

Force Players: Sack Study

The trend is pretty simple, In just about every case, Force Players double non-Force Players in sack output of their best three seasons when split by round. Judging by the number of active players in each category and the success of pass-rushers from the 2015 and 2014 draft classes, the numbers should only rise over the next few years.

Notes:

  • Players who are 23-year-olds or younger were highlighted in the “Age” column.
  • Players who have posted fewer than three seasons in the NFL were highlighted in the “Average” column.
  • Players who began their NFL careers at the age of 24 or older were automatically placed in the non-Prodigy categories, but have been noted with “No-Age” in the “Prodigy Pass” column.

If this trend keeps up to the standard of the last decade or so, the players in make or break seasons are:

  • Force Players: Frank Clark (Seattle), Randy Gregory (Dallas), Shaq Riddick (Arizona) and Trevor Bates (Indianapolis)
  • Mid Tiers: Bud Dupree (Pittsburgh) and Stephen Weatherly (Minnesota)

Force Players need to hit a four-sack single-season mark before they begin a regular season as 24-year-olds before they’re on track for success, while Mid Tiers need to hit a 5.5-sack single-season mark.

Here are players who have similar athleticism when compared to best pass-rushers in the league, but are 22 years old or younger:

  • Force Players: Shaq Lawson (Buffalo), Robert Nkemdiche (Arizona), Danielle Hunter (Minnesota-already passed Prodigy filter), Dean Lowry (Green Bay) and Tyrone Holmes (Jacksonville)
  • Mid Tiers: Jonathan Bullard (Chicago)

One player, Bronson Kaufusi, is over the age of 23, and begins his rookie season with elite athleticism.

[click here for data]

]]> 2016 Packers Draft Tweets /2016packersdraft Fri, 29 Apr 2016 20:47:14 +0000 /?p=1502 [...]]]> Kenny Clark #27, DL, UCLA

Jason Spriggs #48, OT, Indiana

Kyler Fackrell #88, EDGE/LB, Utah State

Blake Martinez #131, LB, Stanford

Dean Lowry #137, DL, Northwestern

Trevor Davis #163, WR, California

Kyle Murphy #200, OT, Stanford

]]> 2016 First-Round Pass-Rushers /sorrybearsfans Fri, 29 Apr 2016 18:01:12 +0000 /?p=1497 [...]]]> (I’d like to start this by saying that I’m a big Joey Bosa fan, and he was my top edge defender in the 2016 draft class.)

Based on athletic potential, you can tell a lot about pass-rushing prospects.

Force Players

Force Players is an athletic threshold based off of combine performances of pass-rushers that I’ve been working on since 2011. It isn’t the end all be all for edge defenders, but it’s close. It works as a healthy risk analysis, based on a sample of the 2005 through 2015 draft classes.

Using Force Players to split up different categories of pass-rushers, you’ll find that athletic draft prospects selected early in the draft are about twice as productive at their peaks as their counterparts.

Force Players: Sack Study

The trend is pretty simple, In just about every case, Force Players double non-Force Players in sack output of their best three seasons when split by round. Judging by the number of active players in each category and the success of pass-rushers from the 2015 and 2014 draft classes, the numbers should only rise over the next few years.

Using Force Players to split up different categories of pass-rushers, you’ll find that athletic draft choices selected early in the draft are eight times more likely to still be on their original team by their sixth year in the NFL (equivalent to seeing a second contract after a fifth-year option for this generation’s first-round picks.)

Force Players: Retention Rate

7.1 percent of those non-Force Players were still with their original franchise during their sixth NFL season. You’re 8.32 times more likely to still be on your original franchise in your sixth season in the league if you’re a first- or second-round Force Player compared to a non-Force Player.

You can also essentially pin down if a pass-rusher is or isn’t go to “make it” in the league by his productivity relative to his athleticism at the age of 23.

Prodigy

We can say that there’s a fairly definitive line for success for pass-rushers who are X athletic with X production at X age.

So how does that help us view this draft class? Specifically looking at the 2016 pool, using first-round numbers alone (since 2005), we can claim that:

  • There’s a 61 percent chance that Shaq Lawson is going to average around 13 sacks in his three best seasons in the statistic (about Shawne Merriman or Clay Matthews), while there’s a 39 percent chance that he’s going to average around 4.5 sacks in his three best seasons (about Manny Lawson.)
  • There’s a 82 percent chance that Joey Bosa and Leonard Floyd are going to average around three sacks in their three best seasons in the statistic (about Derrick Harvey), while there’s an 18 percent chance that they’re going to average around 11 sacks in their three best seasons (about Chandler Jones.)
  • Leonard Floyd, who is turning 24 years old before Week 1, should have been producing in the NFL at a seven-sack rate last season to be conducive to next level success, but he was instead playing as an off the ball linebacker in college football in 2015.

As pure pass-rushers, there odds seem to be against San Diego’s Joey Bosa and Chicago’s Leonard Floyd, but in favor of Buffalo’s Shaq Lawson.

Screenshot (1662)

]]> Prodigy /letstalkaboutsacks Sun, 24 Apr 2016 20:46:05 +0000 /?p=1395 [...]]]> Force Players

Force Players is an athletic threshold based off of combine performances of pass-rushers that I’ve been working on since 2011. It isn’t the end all be all for edge defenders, but it’s close. It works as a healthy risk analysis, based on a sample of the 2005 through 2015 draft classes.

I began a study to try to test if those who lack Force Player athleticism at 21 years old, like Joey Bosa, have a significantly higher “hit” rate than those who failed to reach the threshold at 22 or 23, and the results were inconclusive. What I was able to stumble into, though, was that you can tell how good a pass-rusher is going to be based on what their highest single-sack mark is at the age of 23 and what their athletic background is.

Sample set:

  • 2005-2015 first- through third-round picks
  • Force Players, Mid Tiers and non-Force Players
  • Peak Average: best three sack totals averaged from Force Players: Sack Study

What was interesting to me is that Force Players, Mid Tiers and non-Force Players seem to have three different thresholds. For the purpose of simplifying an idea into one word, we’ll call those who pass the thresholds “Prodigies.” It was the first Google result for “What’s the opposite of a late-bloomer?”

  • Force Players: 4 sacks
  • Mid Tiers: 5.5 sacks
  • non-Force Players: 7 sacks

This study was done by judging players’ age by how old they were on September 1 of a given year.

So, if a Force Player had four or more sacks during a season in which he began Week 1 as a 23-year-old or younger, then he passes. The same can be said of a Mid Tier with 5.5 sacks or a non-Force Player with seven sacks. Simple?

Here are the results by athletic category.

Force Players:

Screenshot (1619)

Mid Tiers:

Screenshot (1619)

non-Force Players:

Screenshot (1619)

Here’s a visualization of every category combined, with the Prodigies highlighted in blue and the non-Prodigies highlighted in orange:

Screenshot (1619)

Notes on this:

  • Charles Johnson and Justin Tuck had breakout season at 24 years old, but Tuck missed double-digit games in the season he began as a 23-year-old.
  • Some of the top non-Prodigies were late-blooming Force Players like Jerry Hughes, Anthony Spence, Jason Worilds and Melvin Ingram.
  • Paul Kruger was able to put together two nice seasons, with one coming off the bench in Baltimore. Michael Johnson, Jason Hatcher, and Robert Ayers, the three non-Force Player non-Prodigies following him, are largely products of one splash season among average careers.
  • Adrian Clayborn (5.33) is the only Force Player Prodigy to net fewer than a 10.17 Peak Average. He missed the majority of his second and fourth seasons in the league due to injury after his 7.5-sack rookie season.

So what does this mean?

  1. It doesn’t look good for prospects who come into the league as 24-year-olds. We should already have a sample of how good they are, and the fact that they were still playing in college as 23-year-olds is concerning.
  2. For rookies who will start their careers at 23 years old, we should know right away if they will or won’t make an impact at the next level.
  3. We can say that there’s a fairly definitive line for success for pass-rushers who are X athletic with X production at X age.

The following table is a list of players who either just completed the season at 23 years old or have already passed through the filter at a younger age, but all have spent less than three seasons in the league. On the far right is the projected sum of a pass-rusher’s top three seasons, based on Prodigy status and athletic category. It’s simply the Mean Peak Average of similar edge defenders multiplied by three and rounded.

Screenshot (1619)

Numbers would suggest to buy stock in Vic Beasley, despite the backlash on him, and DeMarcus Lawrence, despite his athletic background. Preston Smith and Danielle Hunter led rookies in sacks off of the bench last season, and in a weak pass-rushing draft class, teams would be smart to see about potentially trading for one of them.

Here are the edge defenders who have yet to play a season at 23 years old, and have yet to hit the threshold set by Prodigy.

Screenshot (1619)

For all but Dante Fowler and Mario Edwards, who entered the league as 21-year-olds last season, 2016 will be a make or break season for the group.

Here’s a look at the 2016 draft class. FRX is essentially the over-under of when a player will be drafted based off of the current numbers on Play the Draft, which I find to be a decent measure of draft stock. These are the first- through third-round “DE” prospects on their site, along with some other players I believe can be edge rushers.

Age is based on how old a player will be on September 1 of this year, but it should be noted that Leonard Floyd will turn 24 on September 8, the very day the NFL season kicks off. He’s beginning his professional career as a 24-year-old. Ages came from Dane Brugler’s 2016 Draft Guide, which is well worth the $6.99 you can buy it for. It has been my go-to guide for the past three or four years.

Screenshot (1619)

So, in terms of make or break seasons, the fates of Floyd (a very old 23) and Carl Nassib should be sealed by the end of their rookie campaigns.

]]> Force Players: Sack Study /athleticismmatters Fri, 22 Apr 2016 13:04:29 +0000 /?p=1377 [...]]]> Force Players

Force Players is an athletic threshold based off of combine performances of pass-rushers that I’ve been working on since 2011. It isn’t the end all be all for edge defenders, but it’s close. It works as a healthy risk analysis, based on a sample of the 2005 through 2015 draft classes.

After running a study on the retention rate of pass-rushers based on combine athleticism, I decided to look at what “peak sack” of Force Players are compared to non-Force Players.

Retention Rate

Here are the raw facts:

  • Based on pass-rushers from the 2005-2013 classes, first-round Force Players average 9.14 sacks a season for their three best sack totals. First-round non-Force Players only average 4.49 sacks in their prime. Of the 16 non-Force Players drafted in the first round, only two, Aldon Smith and Chandler Jones, even crossed the 9.14-sack mark over a three-year span. A first-round Force Player has a 50 percent chance to average 10 sacks or more for his three best sack totals, while that number for non-Force Players is 12.5 percent, one fourth of a Force Player’s chances. Eight of the 11 Force Players who haven’t reached a three-year 10-sack peak are still on a roster, meaning 72.7 percent of those hitting under the mark still have a chance to improve their scores. Only four of the 14 non-Force Players who hit under the mark are still in the NFL, a 28.6 percent number, about two fifths of where the Force Players hit.
  • Second-round Force Players average 6.47 sacks a season for their three best sack totals. First-round non-Force Players only average 3.04 sacks in their prime. Of the 19 non-Force Players drafted in the second round, only two, Paul Kruger and Jabaal Sheard, even crossed the 6.47-sack mark over a three-year span. A first-round Force Player has a 33.3 percent chance to average 10 sacks or more for his three best sack totals, while that number for non-Force Players is 0 percent. Of the four Force Players who didn’t reach a three-year 10-sack peak, Jason Worilds retired in his prime, and Brooks Reed and Jamie Collins are still on a roster. Other than Kruger and Sheard, only three of the remaining 17 non-Force Players are still in the NFL, good for 17.6 percent.

The trend is pretty simple, In just about every case, Force Players double non-Force Players in sack output of their best three seasons when split by round. Judging by the number of active players in each category and the success of pass-rushers from the 2015 and 2014 draft classes, the numbers should only rise over the next few years.

  • First-round Force Players: 9.14 sacks
  • First-round non-Force Players: 4.49 sacks (49.1 percent of FP)
  • Second-round Force Players: 6.47 sacks
  • Second-round non-Force Players: 3.04 sacks (47.0 percent of FP)
  • Third-round Force Players: 8.42 sacks
  • Third-round non-Force Players: 3.72 sacks (44.2 percent of FP)
  • Fourth-round Force Players: 3.52 sacks
  • Fourth-round non-Force Players: 1.63 sacks (46.3 percent of FP)

[click here for the data]

]]> Justo’s Green Bay Packers Mock/Board /justos-green-bay-packers-mockboard Thu, 21 Apr 2016 13:35:06 +0000 /?p=1366 [...]]]> I’ve been asked a couple of times to do a Green Bay Packers-specific mock draft and a Packers-specific big board over the last few weeks. We’re one week out from the big day, so I decided to finally do it.

I’m not going to rank players how I like them, though. Instead, I took a look at the trends that Green Bay has had over the years. For offensive players, I started with the 2006 draft class, when head coach Mike McCarthy was brought in. For defensive players, I started with the 2009 draft class, when defensive coordinator Dom Capers was brought in.

I narrowed my view from all draft picks to first- through fourth-round picks. Looking after that will fog up the true tendencies of this front office, as most late round picks are just fliers. From there, I eliminated players who didn’t seem to fit the Packers’ criteria.

Cutting Down the Board

QB: Semi-mobile quarterbacks are the trend, but with Aaron Rodgers and Brett Hundley on the roster, I don’t think the squad is going to draft a passer in the first four rounds. I’m not listing the position.

RB: Eddie Lacy doesn’t fit the mold of the other running backs that Ted Thompson-Mike McCarthy have drafted. Every other back caught a significant amount of balls in their final college seasons. With Lacy already on the roster, you’d assume they’d be looking for the type of running back they typically target: Third-down backs. Eliminate players who aren’t in the ballpark of 7-second 3-cone, 4.55-second 40-yard dash and 200 pounds. Mandatory that they caught at least 20 balls in their final season.

WR: This is a trend of Ted Thompson’s: Every position has one outlier. At receiver, it’s Randall Cobb. Look for receivers 5’11” or taller, ballpark of 4.55-second 40-yard dash and 7.05-second 3-cone.

H: I had to look at all tight ends instead of just the first four rounds, as Ted Thompson has only taken two that early in his history with the team. When accounting for Jermichael Finley’s odd combine-pro day split, all of Green Bay’s true tight ends have been great athletes, despite their size. Ballpark of 4.7-second 40-yard dash, 7.3-second 3-cone and 4.55-second shuttle.

OL: Other than Jason Spitz, who was drafted in the first year of the Ted Thompson-Mike McCarthy marriage, every offensive lineman they’ve taken early in the draft has been a college blindside pass protector. Players who were never left tackles. Ballpark of 7.75-second 3-cone and 4.75-second shuttle.

DL: Modified version of Force Players.

EDGE: Modified version of Force Players.

LB: The Packers have only drafted one (Jake Ryan) off the ball linebacker in the first four rounds since Dom Capers has been the defensive coordinator of the team. Ryan played on the edge for Michigan at times, which falls in line with a Green Bay trend: moving edge defenders to inside linebacker. Clay Matthews, Brad Jones, Nate Palmer and Carl Bradford have all moved from outside linebacker to inside linebacker. Look for players who have OLB-ILB skill sets.

CB: Avoiding short cornerbacks started in Green Bay. Kick anyone off the board who is shorter than 5105. Ballpark of 4.6-second 40-yard dash and 7.1-second 3-cone.

S: Green Bay just drafted a first-round safety two years ago, and Morgan Burnett is making elite strong safety money. If they target a safety in this class, it’s more than likely a “Bat” third safety for package downs. I’m not including the position on the big board.

The Board

These are the first- through fourth-round grades for players on NFL Draft Scout who qualified through the filters. Here’s your Packers-specific board. If nothing else, it’s a 57-man watch list.

Screenshot (1598)

 

 

 

Using this board as the pool to make selections from, I redrafted selections from Dane Brugler’s (CBS Sports) seven-round mock draft.

1st: Kenny Clark, DL, California

B.J. Raji retired. Josh Boyd ended the season on IR. Mike Pennel is on a four-game suspension. Christian Ringo is more of a spelling 3-tech behind Mike Daniels than a true starter. Datone Jones got moved to outside linebacker years after Mike Neal was moved to outside linebacker. Jerel Worthy and Khyri Thornton didn’t pan out.

The only defensive lineman other than Mike Daniels who is consistent that the Packers can field on in Week 1 is Letroy Guion, who was facing gun and drug charges last offseason. Clark is a 20-year-old who may not look explosive on paper, but he’s a 3-technique in a nose tackle’s body, very similar to a young Raji. Clark can play left defensive end early on in his career, where he’ll see much fewer double-teams, but I wouldn’t count him out as a nose guard long term, either.

LE: Kenny Clark vs. Josh Boyd

Nose: Letroy Guion vs Mike Pennel

UT: Mike Daniels, Christian Ringo

If you have one hole, fill it twice to be safe. I’ll take a defensive lineman over a linebacker any day, especially in Dom Capers’ defense.

2nd: Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh

I think we’re making a mistake by assuming that the Green Bay Packers are fine with bringing Jordy Nelson back and calling it good on receivers. If Will Fuller or Josh Doctson are there in the first round, I think they pull the trigger. They seem to want another outside receiver, based on who they’ve brought in for interviews. They typically bring in UDFA types, but when half of their reported visits are at the same position, you begin to wonder.

#1 outside: Jordy Nelson

#2 outside/slot: Randall Cobb

#3 outside: ???

Is it Jared Abbrederis? Are we ready to hand it off to Jeff Janis after a couple of late games? Is Davante Adams even going to make the 2016 roster?

This is a guy who carried the entire Pittsburgh Panther offense his final year. Boyd is a very consistent receiver who reminds me a bit of Keenan Allen. A second-round, jack of all trades master of none receiver for the Packers? There’s a history of this.

3rd: Hassan Ridgeway, DL, Texas

I’d damn near demand inside linebacker by now if Ridgeway wasn’t on the board. Again, Green Bay heads into the season with two quality starters  at a three-player unit that’s the most heavily-rotated in the sport. If an athletic fat guy falls into your lap, you take him no questions asked. Ridgeway is an upside guy who might be one of the 20 best players in the draft, if he develops. Green Bay would head into 2017 with their five line of scrimmage players locked up: Datone-Ridgeway-Clark-Daniels-Clay.

4th A: Joe Schobert, LB, Wisconsin

Ted Thompson likes to convert failed or undersized athletic pass-rushers to inside linebackers. Schobert is too short to be considered as a pass-rusher by many, but he has a lot of Jake Ryan-Carl Bradford in him, good or bad. If he’s still there in the fourth round, expect him to be the pick.

4th B: Charles Tapper, EDGE, Oklahoma

Tapper is hard to explain. He runs down Big 12 running backs and receivers like Amari Cooper from behind, but he played in a frog stance for his last two years at Oklahoma that asked him to be a run-first defender. His former coach Jerry Montgomery is now on the Packers coaching staff, which loves to bring in freak athletes on the edge. Recently, they’ve brought in bigger 3-4 outside linebackers with Julius Peppers, Nick Perry, Mike Neal and Datone Jones. He can develop into a power rusher opposite of Clay Matthews.

4th C: Paul Perkins RB, UCLA

Green Bay has been looking for someone to spell Eddie Lacy on passing downs for a while now. No more Randall Cobb in the backfield, limiting their already thin wideout unit. He can catch. He can block. He can cut. He’s a third-down back who can push for a starting gig if Lacy’s body isn’t right.

Final-ish Roster

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Brett Hundley

RB: Eddie Lacy, Paul Perkins, James Starks

WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Tyler Boyd, Jared Abbrederis, Jeff Janis, Davante Adams

H: Jared Cook, Richard Rodgers, Justin Perillo, Aaron Ripkowski, Kennard Backman

OL: David Bakhtiari, Josh Sitton, Corey Linsley, T.J. Lang, Bryan Bulaga, J.C. Tretter, Don Barclay, Lane Taylor

DL: Mike Daniels, Letroy Guion, Kenny Clark, Hassan Ridgeway, Josh Boyd, Christian Ringo

EDGE: Clay Matthews (ILB), Julius Peppers, Nick Perry, Datone Jones, Charles Tapper, Jayrone Elliott

LB: Jake Ryan, Sam Barrington, Joe Schobert, Carl Bradford

CB: Sam Shields, Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins, Ladarius Gunter

S: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, Morgan Burnett, Micah Hyde (CB), Chris Banjo

SPT: Mason Crosby, Tim Masthay, Rick Lovato

Suspended/Injured: WR Ty Montgomery, DL Mike Pennel, CB Demetri Goodson

]]> Ball Reads/Tackle Reads /stopunderratingshaqlawson Tue, 19 Apr 2016 12:53:25 +0000 /?p=1356 [...]]]> Recently, I was a guest on Matt Waldman’s RSP Film Room to watch Tyrone Holmes’ game against North Dakota State. Whenever I’m asked how to learn about scouting, I always point people to Matt’s series. I don’t think there’s anything that you can read that will supplement for the visual learning of the sport, and there are very few accessible paths into player evaluation.

A topic which was brought up during the talk was snap reads for defensive linemen. There are really only three types of reads. There are ball reads, tackle reads and cadence jumps. Identifying these are key for evaluating defensive line positions.

If you grew up playing football, there’s a good chance that you flipped between coached ball reads, moving when you see the ball move, and freelanced cadence jumps, “snap jumping” based on repetitive counts. Not all defenses run that way, though, particularly at the college level.

Some defenses, like the Oregon Ducks’ 3-4 under Don Pellum, don’t even field a pass-rusher. Teams can take a more passive approach to front seven football than shooting gaps constantly. This is where tackle reads come in handy. If you want to clog running lanes, instead of shooting gaps, does getting off the ball at the same time as the offensive linemen even help you?

As a defensive lineman, you want to replace the feet of an offensive lineman in terms of depth in the ground game. If you’re getting into the backfield and not making an agressive tackle for loss against the run, you’re likely running yourself out of the play. Holding your point at the line of scrimmage, instead of gambling on athleticism to be a hero, is the purpose of tackle reads.

This isn’t a technique used exclusively for 3-4 defenses, either. For the most part, Holmes and his even front linemates used tackle reads, meaning they didn’t move until the offensive linemen in front of them moved, on first and second down. There was a noticeable difference between his burst off of the line of scrimmage when he was and wasn’t looking at the ball pre-snap. Tackle reads are often misdiagnosed as a player being “slow of the line.”

Two prospects in last draft class who were credited with inconsistent explosion out of their stances were Nebraska’s Randy Gregory and LSU’s Danielle Hunter. They both tested like great athletes in terms of measurables, but why did they disappear as pass-rushers for stretches?

It’s simple: They just weren’t asked to be primary pass-rushers on every down. Bo Pelini was the defensive coordinator at LSU from 2005 to 2007. In 2008, when Pelini left to take over the Nebraska program, Bradley Dale and Doug Mallory, two former Pelini assistants, split the defensive coordinator title. The next year, John Chavis was awarded the job, and he kept the Pelini-style defense, which included plenty of early down tackle reads.

Gregory and Hunter played for Pelini and Chavis, who coached them to slow down their explosion based on the situation. The first two plays of Gregory’s Draft Breakdown cut against USC are different reads.

Screenshot (1585)

 

The first play in the video was a third and six, a pass-rushing situation. It goes by quick, but if you pause the video, you’ll notice that all four Nebraska defensive linemen are looking at the ball. When it’s snapped, they react quickly and Gregory hits Trojan quarterback Cody Kessler in a decent rush attempt.

Screenshot (1587)

The second play in the video was a second and three, a run-stuffing situation. If you pause the play pre-snap, you’ll notice that the linemen aren’t cocking their heads or turning their bodies inside to look at the ball, but are instead staring directly forward. This time, there’s more of a delay from the defenders between the ball being snapped and when they take their first step, and it’s purposeful.

If defensive linemen are staring at a ball on third down, there’s a 95 percent chance you’re going to get a clear read on how fast the players can get out of their stances at full effort. If the defensive linemen are staring at tackles, guards and centers in front of them on first down, there’s a 95 percent chance they’re going to look “slow,” since the queue to move is after the offensive line moves after the offensive line is queued to move by the cadence.

Another benefit to tackle reads is that a lineman’s eyes are already pointed toward their opponent, which in theory makes it easier for lineman to identify which types of blocks are coming his way and from where.

Last year, I brought up the split between ball reads and tackle reads when evaluating both Gregory and Hunter. Hunter was tabbed as an on paper athlete. The majority of LSU’s plays were tackle reads and he only posted 4.5 sacks in his college career. It laid out an easy narrative. You could have convinced yourself that he wasn’t as athletic on the field as he was in Dri-FIT gear.

Hunter was drafted in the third round by the Minnesota Vikings, and, last year, he posted six sacks, more than in his entire college career. He also did so against better competition. He finished second in sacks for NFL rookies in 2015.

In the RSP Film Room session with Matt, I noted several times when Holmes was doing tackle reads and ball reads. When Holmes is told to rush after the passer, he’s the first Grizzly in the backfield. That shouldn’t surprise anyone, based off of his FCS-leading sack production and his insane pro day numbers.

Still, if you’re just judging Holmes’ get-off on a snap-by-snap basis, instead of splitting his ball reads and tackle reads into two categories, his consistently impactful but limited in volume explosive attempts are just another data point in your personal evaluation process.

Another player who seems to fall victim to ball reads is Shaq Lawson. Earlier this month, I noted that the only first-round edge defenders selected over the last decade who are clearly better athletes than Lawson are Von Miller, Melvin Ingram and Bruce Irvin. Despite that, some, like ESPN’s Todd McShay, have said Lawson is limited athletically.

On paper, based on the numbers off of the NFL’s combine “master recording sheet,” which is sent to every franchise, Lawson is Ezekiel Ansah.

Ansah, on a per year basis, is one of the top 10 edge defenders drafted in the last decade. Interestingly enough, Ansah was viewed as “just an athlete” coming out of BYU. Lawson is being discussed as solely a technical edge-setter, when his upside says he has 10-sack potential. If you happen to rewatch Lawson between now and the draft,  with the different types of get-off reads in mind, you might have a moment of clarity, avoiding a potential misevaluation.

]]> 2016 Force Players-Official Combine Sheet Update /2016-force-players-official-combine-sheet-update Fri, 08 Apr 2016 11:32:46 +0000 /?p=1264 [...]]]> As some of you may know, there’s a difference between the numbers that NFL teams receive from the combine and the ones which are posted on sites like NFL.com. This is a quick update on the status of the 2016 Force Players class after running numbers from the official combine sheet. You need to read these articles to understand the context.

2016 Force Players

Force Players is an athletic threshold based off of combine performances of pass-rushers that I’ve been working on since 2011. It isn’t the end all be all for edge defenders, but it’s close. It works as a healthy risk analysis, based on a sample of the 2005 through 2015 draft classes.

It’s heavily based around the three-cone drill and both the vertical and broad jumps. The short shuttle and the 10-yard split from the 40-yard dash are weighted more than the 40-yard dash itself. Looking at these numbers, it’s pretty obvious that the least important drill is the one which gets the most publicity.

2016 Force Players (Interior Defensive Linemen)

Force Players is a risk analysis used for edge defenders, but if I were forced to translate it to the interior defensive line, which I get questions about weekly, it would be more of a highlighting function for one-gap defensive linemen. Below is a look at the active 2005-2014 Force Player (blue) and Mid Tier (yellow) interior defensive linemen who were drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft.

There doesn’t seem to be any relationship between the difference of Force Players and Mid Tiers on the interior defensive line. This makes sense, as I’ve stated the difference between the two in edge defender evaluation is start-stop-start ability, which doesn’t really exist on the interior defensive line. On the inside, you need to burst out of your stance and go. There is no stop.

Edge defenders

Force Players: Shaq Lawson (Clemson)

Mid Tiers: None

Interior defensive linemen

Force Players: Connor Wujciak (Boston College), Maliek Collins (Nebraska)

Mid Tiers: Chris Jones (Mississippi State), Javon Hargrave (South Carolina State), Sheldon Rankins (Louisville), Vincent Valentine (Nebraska)

Somewhere in the middle

Force Players: Bronson Kaufusi (BYU), Dean Lowry (Northwestern)

Mid Tiers: Jonathan Bullard (Florida)

Robert Nkemdiche (Mississippi) is either a Mid Tier or Force Player depending on what his short shuttle looks like. It has been reported other places, but since I built my data on however NFLDraftScout.com processes their pro day information, I’m going to wait until they post the results to run it through the formula. I’ll have a pro day update some point before the draft.

Other significant players who are possible Force Players based on their partial combine results: Charles Tapper (Oklahoma), Stephen Weatherly (Vanderbilt), Chris Mayes (Georgia), Kenny Clark (UCLA) and Kyler Fackrell (Utah State).

]]> Force Players: Retention Rate /force-players-retention-rate Thu, 07 Apr 2016 03:44:16 +0000 /?p=1259 [...]]]> Early today on Twitter, I had a conversation with Justin Higdon, one of the draftniks I’m closer to in the draft community. As my “brand” of being the Force Players guy, I’m supposed to hate Joey Bosa, who is generally considered the top edge defender in the class, as he missed the 2016 Force Players cutoff. That’s not the case. I like him for who he is, a tough, long base defensive end who is going to give you above average run game contributions out of the gate. For someone who is only 20 years old, that’s great.

I will say, though, the combines of Bosa and his former teammate Noah Spence concern me. NFL Network’s Charley Casserly, who was the general manager of the Washington Redskins from 1989 to 1999, stated that Bosa was better than Ezekiel Ansah, who if you are judging by Pro Football Reference’s Adjusted Value, has the sixth-most efficient career of a first-round pass-rusher since 2005. The only names ahead of him are J.J. Watt, who Bosa has also been compared to, Von Miller, Clay Matthews, DeMarcus Ware and Khalil Mack.

The topic of Bosa reaching an eight-sack rookie season came up, something only 17 players have been able to do since 2005, including Ansah. Of the 17 players, nine were Force Players, including the only two interior defensive linemen on the list, three were Mid Tiers, two were non-Force Players and three hovered in no man’s land without full data on hand. Shawne Merriman would have qualified as either a Force Player or a Mid Tier pass-rusher, but we can’t pin him down into one category. Tamba Hali and Elvis Dumervil didn’t post enough data to even narrow them down that far.

My point was this, though: Only two of the 17 players who were able to accomplish this goal were non-Force Players, which in my mind is a red flag for Bosa’s chances, as the majority of pass-rushers drafted are non-Force Players. Even then, one, Aldon Smith, was coming off of a visible injury during his final year in college, which I speculate may have muddied his combine numbers.

What stuck me odd when I was compiling the data set was the fact that both of the non-Force Players weren’t on the rosters of the original teams which drafted them. If I were to make a list of first- and second-round misses who the Force Players filter passed over, Smith and Sheard are two of the first three. In terms of Approximate Value/Season, Chandler Jones and Sheard lead the list of non-Force Players, with Smith’s recent efforts holding him down in the seventh spot.

The other non-Force Players at the top of the data set are Whitney Mercilus, Akeem Ayers, Gaines Adams, Koa Misi, Courtney Upshaw, Trent Murphy and Quinton Coples. Those aren’t exactly the players you’d want a first- or second-round prospect to look up to.

It got me thinking, if the top non-Force Players don’t even receive second contracts with the team that drafted them, what must the full splits look like? Smith’s release from San Francisco wasn’t totally performance based, but Sheard walked from Cleveland as an unrestricted free agent, and Jones was just traded to Arizona for a second-round pick and Jonathan Cooper, a guard whose started 11 games in his three-year career. Ask a New England Patriots fan about Jones, and they’ll give you a speech on how he was never going to be re-signed by the team anyway and how he was a streaky pass-rusher.

The easiest way for me to try to measure the retention rate of first- and second-round pass-rushers was to look at which team they played for six years into the league. Remember, before the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams were signing first-round picks to contracts as long as seven years, but which could be voided after five, like Erasmus James’ in 2005. I figure, if they made it past that voidable stage, teams view their selection as a success.

Now this means that younger players will be excluded off the list, but I believe that actually hurts the case for Force Players more than non-Force Players. Names like Melvin Ingram, Jamie Collins, Ansah, and Mack are cutoff by the six-year threshold. The non-Force Players with the best public standing are the twins from Houston, Mercilus, who posted 12 sacks as a part-time starter for the Texans in 2015, and Jadeveon Clowney, who is still viewed as more potential than player after his microfracture surgery. After those two, there’s not much hope on the non-Force Players list. For the purposes of adding another class, we’re going to count who pass-rushers are slated to play for in 2016.

Here are the raw facts:

  • Between 2005-2011, 22 Force Players were taken in the first or second round of the NFL draft.
  • Between 2005-2011, 27 non-Force Players were taken in the first or second round of the NFL draft.
  • 59.1 percent of those Force Players were still with their original franchise during their sixth NFL season.
  • 7.1 percent of those non-Force Players were still with their original franchise during their sixth NFL season. You’re 8.32 times more likely to still be on your original franchise in your sixth season in the league if you’re a first- or second-round Force Player compared to a non-Force Player.
  • 4.5 percent of those Force Players were out of the league within six years after being drafted. The only player who didn’t see a sixth season, making up the full 4.5 percent, is Jason Worilds, who retired to focus on religion. At the time, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport estimated that Worilds essentially turned down what would have been a contract worth $7 to $8 million per year, in what would have been his sixth season in the NFL.
  • 57.1 percent of those non-Force Players were out of the league within six years after being drafted. You’re 12.69 times more likely to be out of the league within six NFL seasons as a first- or second-round non-Force Player compared to a Force Player.

[click here for the data]

 

]]> Myth: Shaq Lawson Isn’t Athletic /myth-shaq-lawson Tue, 05 Apr 2016 11:22:01 +0000 /?p=1243 [...]]]> In a recent episode of First Draft, an ESPN podcast, Todd McShay made the case for Shaq Lawson, Clemson’s one-year wonder pass-rusher. Unfortunately, he hedged his take, stating that Lawson wasn’t the athlete that Georgia’s Leonard Floyd is.

Let’s take a look at the first- through third-round edge defenders drafted since 2005 to see if this is factual. Not included in the data set are Tank Carradine, Phillip Merling, Victor Abiamiri, Shawne Merriman, Justin Tuck, Tamba Hali and Dan Cody, since I do not have full data on those players coming out of college.

We’ll look at Lawson’s combine effort through the scope of Waldo, since that’s a public metric. Speed and Explosive Power are composite scores, taking in the 40-yard dash/10-yard split and the vertical jump/broad jump, respectively. Twitch is his form of testing a player’s short shuttle, but by taking into account of a player’s 10-yard split. Agility is just simply a density adjusted three-cone.

The threshold set is going to be Lawson’s combine results, per the official combine sheet. In Speed, Lawson ranks 40th out of 112 prospects. Here are the eliminated prospects:

Ryan Kerrigan
Michael Johnson
Chris Gocong
Jamie Collins
Dan Bazuin
Clint Sintim
Gaines Adams
Andre Branch
Jason Jones
J.J. Watt
Robert Ayers
Derrick Morgan
Barkevious Mingo
Marcus Smith
Shawn Crable
Scott Crichton
David Veikune
Jerry Hughes
Lawrence Jackson
Courtney Upshaw
Derrick Harvey
LaMarr Woodley
DeMarcus Ware
Olivier Vernon
Kamerion Wimbley
Charles Johnson
Jarron Gilbert
Khalil Mack
Sam Montgomery
Anthony Spencer
Anthony Barr
Jason Pierre-Paul
Dion Jordan
Jake Bequette
Jermaine Cunningham
Kony Ealy
Paul Kruger
Dee Ford
Aaron Maybin
David Pollack
Matt Roth
Larry English
Quentin Moses
Erasmus James
Kyle Van Noy
Darryl Blackstock
Anthony Chickillo
Sergio Kindle
Mathias Kiwanuka
Jarvis Moss
Will Clarke
Aldon Smith
Vincent Burns
DeMarcus Lawrence
Bjorn Werner
Koa Misi
Chandler Jones
Daniel Te’o-Nesheim
Cody Brown
Alex Carrington
Tyrone Crawford
Jason Hatcher
Darryl Tapp
Ikaika Alama-Francis
Akeem Ayers
Matt Shaughnessy
Frostee Rucker
Da’Quan Bowers
Trent Murphy
Jarvis Jones
Vinny Curry
Damontre Moore

In Agility, Lawson ranks 16th out of the remaining 40 prospects. Here are the eliminated prospects:

Brooks Reed
Shea McClellin
Ezekiel Ansah
Clay Matthews
Adrian Clayborn
Robert Quinn
Carlos Dunlap
Manny Lawson
Datone Jones
Nick Perry
Dontay Moch
Martez Wilson
Whitney Mercilus
Tim Crowder
Corey Lemonier
Allen Bailey
Brian Orakpo
Jadeveon Clowney
Jabaal Sheard
Quentin Groves
Jeremiah Attaochu
Quinton Coples
Everette Brown
Chris Ellis

Twitch narrows down the list from 16 to 5. Here are the eliminated prospects:

Adam Carriker
Jamaal Anderson
Brandon Graham
Connor Barwin
Chris Long
Cameron Jordan
Jason Worilds
Justin Houston
Mario Williams
Vernon Gholston
Cliff Avril

The last five players are Lawson, Von Miller, Melvin Ingram, Turk McBride and Bruce Irvin. I’m not going to pretend to know what the temperature on McBride was coming out, but the other three were considered athletic pass-rushers. If we ran the last filter, Explosive Power, Lawson would be sitting by himself, as no top-100 EDGE prospect since at least 2005 has been able to hit above his marks in all four measurements of Waldo’s formula.

What you think of these metrics may vary, but you can’t state that Lawson isn’t a good athlete. That’s just not true.

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