A Series of Unfortunate Events: Matt Ryan’s 2015 Season

The Atlanta Falcons began the season 5-0, but reality and chaos caught up to them shortly after. The daunting task of finding a second weapon to compliment Julio Jones crept up on them, the cracks in the defense began to show and the offensive line lost its cohesiveness. What seemed like a Cinderella year for the Falcons, turned out to be an installment in the Series of Unfortunate Events. 

After a strong four or five seasons of solidifying himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the league, Matt Ryan’s quality of play regressed in 2015. Much of the Falcons woes were pinned directly on him because he is the quarterback, but, as in most cases, there was more to the story than Ryan simply getting worse. Between Kyle Shanahan bringing in a new system and Julio Jones being the only viable receiving threat throughout the year, Ryan faced a tremendous uphill battle, especially after the offensive line and defense began falling off after the first five weeks or so. Ryan did not do enough to make up for those troubles, though. He played well enough to not magnify the faults of the team, but there were times where he lacked the physical tools or confidence to take over games like his team needed. This does not make Ryan a bad quarterback, but it does mean his ability as a player is a bit more personnel dependent than others, which is fine when one’s peaks are as good as his. In 2015, we did not see those peaks enough.

The underlying problem with Ryan’s play was his struggle to acclimate to Shanahan’s system. Throughout the year, there was a misconception that Ryan was a bad quarterback because he could not operate Shanahan’s system as well as expected, or that Shanahan was a bad coordinator because he could not get more out of Ryan. The reality is that the two operate with very different styles and Ryan simply needed time to adjust to Shanahan’s system. Ryan is a quarterback that has been known for thriving through precision and timing, flowing from one progression to the next with a clear understanding of where other routes were in their development. Shanahan’s system is based more around long developing routes and ‘waiting’ concepts, like seam shots and crossers. With these routes, the quarterback has to feel when the right time to throw the ball is, as opposed to their feet telling them when to throw based on where they are in their drop/hitch progression. Quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Philip Rivers are the poster boys for this style of passing, but Ryan is not used to operating with that style of route concepts as often as he now has to. Having to learn how to make these concepts second-nature has been a journey for Ryan, but he is a smart enough quarterback to learn how to make it work, and that showed near the tail end of the season.

The clear lack of talent in personnel also created issues for the Falcons. Shanahan’s system lives and dies through its No.1 receiver. With a top three receiver like Jones, this can be a lethal strategy, but feeding the top target requires there to be another threat that can make the defense pay if they put too much extra attention on Jones. The Falcons did not have that in 2015. Leonard Hankerson had a short stint where he was ‘that’ guy for the offense, but ultimately his lacksidaisical play and poor hands lead to him getting cut, as he should have been. Roddy White was the consistent No.2 receiver for the offense, but he posed zero threat of an explosive play and could hardly be counted on to get enough separation in the short game. He provided little value other than that he is very familiar with Ryan. Rookie Justin Hardy had a moment here and there, but was never a constant play maker or threat to the defense.

For the No.1 receiver to really thrive in Shanahan’s offense, there has to be another athletic presence that stretches the field in the opposite manner that Jones is. For example, Atlanta ran a lot of deep crossers with a ‘go’ route on the side the crosser was headed to. This either clears out space for the crosser or forces the safety to play the crosser to leave the ‘go’ route in 1-on-1 coverage. Atlanta did not have anyone who could consistently be a threat on these crossers. White was often asked to run them, but he was so slow last season that defenders had no trouble keeping up with him, allowing the safety to stay over the top and defend the deep route. Hankerson was also tried out as a field-stretcher, but there were plenty of plays where he got separation, then pulled up and failed to run all the way through the play, making it seem as if Ryan had thrown a bad ball.

Tight end Jacob Tamme was not much of a help either. In an offense where the receivers created a lot of space and took off pressure, Tamme may be able to serve as a decent starter, but he was not nearly as strong of a catcher over the middle as he needed to be and certainly was not a dynamic player with the ball in his hands. He is a decent player, but with as troubling as the rest of the offense was, he did not have much of a positive impact on the season.

But to digress, Ryan did not have a great season in his own right. Aside from him having to adjust to a new style of passing, Ryan’s arm was noticeably worse this season than in seasons prior. He never had a dynamic arm, but his velocity and trajectory had seldom been an issue before. In 2015, Ryan struggled to complete any throw if his feet weren’t comfortable. If interior pressure broke through and kept Ryan from stepping into his throw, his arm strength suffered and it left a lot of his throws hitting the dirt before they got to their target. Ryan could not really make plays with his legs, either. He is athletic enough to make a move or two in the pocket, but he poses no threat as a runner. Ryan is not a dynamic quarterback and the lack of talent around him exposed that as a flaw.

A quarterback faced with the task of carrying a bad team has to be dynamic. He has to have something that allows him to take over games. Whether it is elite confidence and precision, arm strength, mobility or whatever it may be, it has to be a dominant trait that can not normally be combated. Ryan does not have a trait like this. In most every area, Ryan’s ability does not exceed “above average”. Of course, that still makes him a respectable passer, but he lacks the ability to take over games. He is not a scared passer, per say, but he does not exude confidence. His arm is average, at best. Mobility is not a strength of his, either. Nothing Ryan can do is game breaking, and this was ultimately his down fall in 2015.

Ryan’s most redeeming trait is his ball placement. Generally, he is a very accurate passer at all levels of the field. He is precise enough with his underneath game and, when he sets his base well, is a very accurate passer in the intermediate and deeper levels of the field. Though, in 2015, his arm restricted him from making a number of throws, primarily deep crossers and throws to the far boundary. Passes often fluttered near the end of their travels and hit the ground before they got to the receiver. In more than a few cases, defenders were able to undercut the throw and intercept it.

Ryan’s arm falling off in 2015 is still a mystery. For the first and last few weeks of the season, it looked fine. He does not possess a great arm, but in the first and last few games of the season, Ryan was completing most of the realistic throws he made. That was not the case for a majority of the season. There was much speculation of injury, but whether or not he was actually injured is still up in the air. That said, with his arm strength falling off like it did, him showing a crippled confidence and having an odd streak of questionable mechanics, it is probably fair to assume Ryan was playing hurt and uncomfortable.

The 2015 season was one long series of unfortunate events for Matt Ryan. He began the story without much of a supporting cast, and crawled his way to the final chapter without much left in him. Shanahan’s new system, albeit genius, was a culture shock for Ryan. He was not used to having to wait on throws and ‘feel’ when they are open. He was a machine running on an entirely new operating system. On top of that, it was more than likely that Ryan was playing through injury for most of the year. In short, Ryan had little help from the situation around him and is himself a player who lacks a dynamic feature to compensate for those around him. Neither side of the passing/receiving exchange did much to help each other and all of the blame came back to the quarterback.

This was, and most likely will remain as, Ryan’s worst season since the early years of his career. More than anything, the season put Ryan under the magnifying glass and exposed him for being a good, not great quarterback who does not have the ability to be better than the cast around him. Of course, if he is given a great cast, he too can look great, but that is going to require a good deal of extra capital on offense that other quarterbacks may not absolutely need like he does. Next season should look better for Ryan as he grows more familiar with the system and the Falcons presumably add pieces on offense.

(610 passes charted)