• It will interest you whether you are looking for real NFL analysis, fantasy football analysis, or both.
• It shows using real data that running backs perform differently based on their contract status.
• I can – and will – apply this same analysis to each position group on the field.

Introduction

It’s common to see ‘player entering a contract year’ as a reason to predict a higher performance level on the field. I’ve seen it for every position from time to time, but especially for running backs.

I have yet to see real data on the subject, and that’s what I’m going for here. Time to put on your *nerd alert* statistical caps.

Hypothesis

Contract year players try harder. They stay on the field more and they do more with the ball.

Once they get a contract, players get lazy. They don’t try as hard in the offseason or during the season, meaning they are more injury prone and are less effective with the ball.

Good old-fashioned human nature.

Sample Size

Note: if you are a casual fan and just want to see the results, feel free to skip this section and go straight to “Results”. This section is more for the math gurus out there so that they can understand (and poke holes in) my logic and statistical reasoning :).

Unlike baseball, which provides a borderline-unlimited amount of statistically significant data, you often have to be some combination of creative, shrewd, and bold with data analysis in the NFL. There just aren’t that many games and plays in a given football season.

I wanted to see how NFL running backs performed in these three areas:

1. The years leading up to their contract year (at least two, preferably three or four)
2. Their contract year
3. The year immediately after their contract year

These three defined periods of performance sound nice and all, but they raise several questions, such as: What age and years of experience for RBs are we going to use? What about players who were undrafted or were traded? What about players who sign extensions while still under contract? And what about injuries?

And with these questions come my set of assumptions to narrow this down:

We are only looking at drafted RBs during their rookie contracts

By limiting our data to rookie contracts of drafted players, we remove any issues of declining performance due to age. We also get rid of undrafted players who only had a very short contract (2 or 3 year deal) at first (such as Arian Foster) as well as players who were traded in the middle of their original contracts (such as Chris Ivory and Reggie Bush). By using these limitations, we can look at a set of players who have the three phases of performance I defined above (2-4 years leading up to contract year; contract year itself; and year after contract year).

Players who sign an extension while still under their rookie contract are included

If a player signs a new contract in the offseason after their rookie contract was completed, then their contract year was the final year of their rookie contract. Simple enough.

If a player signs a contract extension in the offseason prior to the final year of their rookie contract, then that player’s contract year was the second to last year of their rookie deal. Not quite as simple, but still easy enough to get behind, because contract negotiations in the NFL take a long time – on the order of months. They can even take over a year – that’s why some of the top players end up playing out seasons under the franchise tag. The thinking is that, if a player signs an extension during the offseason (even if they are still under contract for the upcoming season), odds are that 1) negotiations were ongoing for a long time prior, and 2) the player knew it.

For example, take LeSean McCoy, who signed a large extension with the Eagles the offseason prior to the final year of his rookie deal. You better believe that his agent was working on that contract for months prior – and you better believe that McCoy knew it (and had appropriate motivation).

Injuries are included

Running backs are among the most injured players in football, so trying to exclude injuries from this data set would have reduced it to zero. As it happens, I think that including injuries is actually critical to this data set – going along with our hypothesis, a more motivated player will spend more time on strength, conditioning, and flexibility during the offseason, and will, in the long run, be less injury prone. Conversely, a fat and happy player with a new contract might be lazier and thus will be more prone to injury.

Only players with significant contracts (roughly $2.5 million annually or greater) are included

We are focusing on financial effects, so looking at players with the biggest financial upticks makes sense.

Relatively underutilized players are not included

Guys like Michael Turner, Darren Sproles, and James Starks aren’t worth looking at because they weren’t given a consistent, featured role under their rookie deals.

We’ll look at players who were drafted within the last 10 years

If someone wants to pay me to crunch numbers back to 1970, I’m listening. Until then…

Results

Using the assumptions and scope limitations above, we have 13 players who meet the criteria:

Adrian Peterson (MIN), LeSean McCoy (PHI), Jonathan Stewart (CAR), Jamaal Charles (KC), DeMarco Murray (DAL), Shane Vereen (NE), Matt Forte (CHI), C.J. Spiller (BUF), Mark Ingram (NO), Ryan Mathews (SD), DeAngelo Williams (CAR), Chris Johnson (TEN), Ray Rice (BAL).

In the table below,

• “Pre-CY Avg” represents a player’s average statistics over their rookie contract, leading up to their contract year.
• “CY” represents a player’s statistics during their contract year.
• “CY+1” represents a player’s statistics the season immediately after signing their contract.

Drum roll please…

Wow.

I’ll be honest – I didn’t think the results would be this telling.

I also feel like I barely even need to discuss these results, as they speak for themselves.

=> The difference in rushing attempts is simply staggering. After averaging 192 carries per season, contract-year RBs get 207 carries during their contract year, and then it drops all the way to 154. And that’s despite being on the field for nearly the same number of games.

=> The difference in yards per carry isn’t huge, but the drop is still significant, as it helps explain why these players wouldn’t touch the ball as much. As a supplement, 9 of our 13 players averaged fewer YPC in CY+1 than they did in their pre-CY average.

=> The uptick in targets and receptions is interesting, and not something I would have necessarily predicted. But when you think about it: an agent tells their player, “Hey, RBs who are involved in the passing game tend to get more money.” Then, the player is more vocal about wanting to be involved in the passing game, and poof. Of course, as soon as they get their contract, their passing game involvement returns to their baseline level of production, at least in terms of targets and receptions.

=> At first, I didn’t think that yards per reception told us anything. After thinking about it though: RBs catch the majority of their passes close to the line of scrimmage, so it makes sense that, the higher their reception total, the lower their average yards per reception would be. For the CY, we see this very phenomenon: receptions go up, and yards per reception go down. For the CY+1, receptions go down, so yards per reception should go up again; however, if you look at the results, it dropped again! To me, that means the RBs were less productive with their catches after signing their contracts.

=> The best for last: Look at the touchdown difference. 6.8, up to 8.4, and all the way down to 5.7. RB touchdowns often come down to effort plays at the goal line, so this goes right in line with our hypothesis that RBs will try harder during their contract years, and become more lax after the fact.

Conclusion

I said at the top that these results would interest you whether you are an NFL team or a fantasy football player.

If you are an NFL team, you should avoid shelling out big contracts to RBs at the end of their rookie deals. If you do shell out the contracts, you should mitigate that risk by investing more into the position.

The notion of ‘avoiding paying RBs a lot of money’ is talked about relentlessly, but clearly it still happens, as evidenced by the likes of Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, and the players in my data set.

Investing more resources in the RB position – in the form of a draft pick or free agent signing – seems counterintuitive after giving your current RB a bunch of money, but just look at the data. On average, your guy will carry and catch the ball less, and he’ll be less productive with those touches.

If you are a fantasy football player, bet on contract-year RBs and fade RBs who just signed big deals.

To give you an idea of how many fantasy points we’re talking about: if you calculate the total fantasy points for each of the three cases – adding yards, receptions, and TDs – you end up with an average season of 197 points (Pre-CY), 220 points (CY), and 167 points (CY+1). The CY to CY+1 difference is more than fifty points! That comes out to anywhere from 15-30% of an RB’s season point total – for perspective, Devonta Freeman scored 316.9 total points last year; AP was second with 260.7 points. The point being – you can expect a significant drop-off in production after a big contract is signed.

Bet: Eddie Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, Gio Bernard, Latavius Murray

Fade: Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, Chris Ivory

Round 1 – Pick 25: Artie Burns, CB, Miami (FL)

The Player:  Artie Burns is actually a pretty good cornerback.  He’s just a little bit, or a lot bit, of a work in progress (especially in the coverage schemes the Steelers run, but more on that later).  What stands out the most when watching Burns is his ability to defend the catch point.  He is tough and physical, without drawing many penalties, which makes life very tough on the receiver.  On top of that, he has exceptional body control in the air and hands like a receiver.  Burns has a nose for the ball and he is exceptional coming downhill to defend the run or bring receivers to the ground after the catch.

On another note there is rarely a rarely a comeback route where Burns won’t get lost.  It should be very exciting watching him give up 8 receptions and 100 yards to every receiver he covers next year.  He is naturally fit to play as a press-man cornerback due to his length, strength, and long speed, but he currently lacks the nuance to do so at a high level.  Even though his natural abilities could give wide receivers fits, he too often allows the wide receiver to get a release where he is supposed to be preventing them from going.  He has lots of ability and he could very well end as a very good player, but it will undoubtedly take time and care.

The Pick: Burns is a good player and a high upside pick with an uncertain future is easier to justify in this weak draft than most.  He is, however, much better suited for the second round than the first.  Adding the fact that there were two very, very good nose tackle prospects in Kenny Clark and Vernon Butler on the board when the pick was made only makes it worse.  I understand the urgency to take a cornerback in the first round, but reaching is never the way to go.

The Fit: This is hands down the worst aspect of the pick.  Burns played almost exclusively press-man and cover 3 at Miami and his skill-set is best fit to do the same in the NFL.  I think he can play in the Steelers’ cover 2 coverage, but you’re essentially punting the first few years.  The complexity of the cover 2 that Pittsburgh runs and the fact that Burns has to learn it from scratch will keep him off the field, at least in an effective matter, early on in his career.

That alone is enough to make this pick a head-scratcher when the center of your franchise is 34 years old and probably only has 3 years left in him.

Round 2 – Pick 50: Sean Davis, DB, Maryland

The Player: This is one of my favorite players in the draft.  I loved Eric Rowe last year and Davis is an almost mirror image of him, especially athletically.  That athleticism is what gives Davis the ability to play multiple positions in the defensive backfield, which is probably one of the things the Steelers like about him most.  On top of his athleticism and versatility, Davis also has very quick and light feet, although they aren’t very refined.  Even in his first year at cornerback he showed that he has at least a decent grasp on the mental part of playing on the boundary.

Davis is a lot better defending what is in front of him at this point than he is defending what is behind him, though.  That is a very good thing when you talk about run defense and minimizing gains from short passes, but it becomes a question when projecting him to safety.  It even affects him when covering deep pass plays at cornerback.  Along with Artie Burns, Davis is another high upside pick at corner, but unlike Burns he seems to have enough ability to see the field immediately in Pittsburgh.

The Pick: The talent in this draft fell off hard after 30 or so players, so getting a player of Davis’ caliber in the late second round could be viewed as somewhat of a steal.  Ideally the pick would have been a defensive tackle here or a true safety rather than a cornerback with some safety ability, but I can’t argue when one of my favorite players in the draft is the pick.

The Fit: The one thing I hate about this pick is that the Steelers seem to want to start Davis off at safety.  That seems like a popular place for draft analysts to slot him, but I don’t think it could be farther off.  Like I mentioned, Davis is a lot better going forwards than he is backwards.  He’s a lot more eager to come forward than drift backward, also.  If he can’t clean that up by the time he sees major playing time at safety then there will be a lot of deep touchdowns in Pittsburgh next year.

Round 3 – Pick 89: Javon Hargrave, DL, South Carolina State

The Player: Hargrave was a man among boys in Division I-AA at South Carolina State.  He would have been nearly unrivaled athletically had he been a defensive lineman in the FBS, let alone the FCS.  He is one of the only interior defensive line #ForcePlayers# in the draft and that athleticism clearly  translates to outstanding pass rush ability.  Hargrave is super explosive and crazy flexible for a 305 pound player.  He can beat interior offensive by running over them, by them, or around them as a pass rusher.  He’s also surprisingly diverse in his pass rush moves for a player who didn’t need to be in order to have success at the lower levels.

Hargrave does struggle some as a run defender, though.  He’s not terrible and he should grow in this area over time, but he’s not nearly as adept against the run as he is against the pass.  He probably won’t be doing much run defending in Pittsburgh, anyway, as he is a one-gapping 1-tech or 3-tech rather than a two-gapping nose tackle.

The Pick: Going into the draft I was hoping to come out of the first 3 rounds with a cornerback, safety, and nose tackle.  Hargrave definitely isn’t the starting nose tackle the Steelers need, but I am ecstatic about this pick nonetheless.  Anytime you can get a top 40 player at the end of the 3rd round you should do it, especially if it’s an interior penetrating (nh) defensive lineman.  Interior pass rush is the king on defense in today’s NFL.

The Fit: Don’t get yourself wrapped up in the fact that Hargrave likely won’t ever be a starter in the 3-4 defense that the Steelers run.  Instead, focus on what he will bring to the team on passing downs.  He immediately becomes a threat that can rotate with Heyward and Tuitt on passing downs.  All three will probably even be on the field simultaneously at times.  Hargraves pass rush ability will immediately help out the EDGE rushers who struggled so mightily last year as well as the coverage on the back end.

An area much less talked about is draft-day trades. It’s easy to focus solely on the player that a team moved up for, but remember… those mid-to-late round picks can end up being all-pro players (Russell Wilson, Josh Norman, Richard Sherman, etc.). Teams certainly shouldn’t be giving up their resources without a compelling reason to do so.

So, when trading up, how much is ‘too much’ ? The NFL trade value chart provides one vehicle to determine that. As I wrote about earlier this week, teams are definitely using the chart as a framework for their trades, with the exceptions tending to come in the top six picks of the draft.

Let’s see how teams fared with this year’s Round 1 Trades. All point values are according to the trade value chart:

Titans trade #1 overall pick to Rams; Browns trade #2 overall pick to Eagles

See my article from earlier in the week for the value breakdowns of these two trades (hint: the teams trading down won in a landslide).

Browns trade #8 overall pick to Titans

The Trade:

Browns receive:

• 15th overall pick (1050 points)
• 76th overall pick (210 points)
• 2017 2nd round pick (430 points – used middle of the round since we don’t know true location)
• => Total value: 1690 points

Titans receive:

• 8th overall pick (1400 points)
• 176th overall pick (21 points)
• => Total value: 1421 points

Trade Value Chart Says:

The Titans gave up 269 points, which corresponds to the 64th overall pick (Round 3, Pick 1).

Jack Says:

The Titans definitely gave up some value here. In my previous article, I identified ~100 points (equating to a 4th round pick) as the threshold below which teams didn’t seem concerned (in 85% of draft pick trades since 2011, the two sides of the trade were within 100 points of each other in terms of the trade value chart). I get that the Titans wanted/needed a tackle to protect Marcus Mariota, and Jack Conklin is a solid prospect, but they paid a significant price. When you aggregate this trade with their trade down from #1, it’s still an easy victory; however, the smart move probably would have been to stay put and draft the best player on the board at #15.

Bucs trade #9 overall pick to Giants

The Trade:

Bucs receive:

• 11th overall pick (1250 points)
• 106th overall pick (82 points)
• => Total value: 1332 points

Giants receive:

• 9th overall pick (1350 points)
• => Total value: 1350 points

Trade Value Chart Says:

Just about even. A 20 point differential is equal to a 6th round pick and is well below the threshold of 100 points.

Jack Says:

An even trade, and more evidence that the trade value chart is being used to frame negotiations. The Giants moved up to get their guy, while the Bucs had a few choices they liked and were content to move back a bit.

Redskins trade #21 overall pick to Texans

The Trade:

Redskins receive:

• 22nd overall pick (780 points)
• 2017 6th round pick (15 points)
• => Total value: 795 points

Texans receive:

• 21st overall pick (800 points)
• => Total value: 800 points

Trade Value Chart Says:

Just about even again. A 5 point differential is worth only a distant 7th round pick and is again well below the 100 point threshold.

Jack Says:

What do you know, another trade that molds into the trade value chart almost exactly. It makes sense for both teams and there isn’t a clear winner.

Seahawks trade #26 overall pick to Broncos

The Trade:

Seahawks receive:

• 31st overall pick (600 points)
• 94th overall pick (124 points)
• => Total value: 724 points

Broncos receive:

• 26th overall pick (700 points)
• => Total value: 700 points

Trade Value Chart Says:

Again, a fair deal. 25 points equates to a late 5th-rounder and is below our 100 point threshold.

Jack Says:

Although this trade is a wash value-wise, I’ll give the ‘winner’ nod to the Broncos. Unlike the Rams and Eagles, who were so desperate for QB help that they panicked and mortgaged their futures, the Broncos stayed cool. They resisted the urge to trade for damaged goods like Colin Kaepernick and Sam Bradford, and they waited late enough in the draft until they could move up just a few spots and secure a solid QB prospect without sacrificing value. I don’t know if Paxton Lynch will pan out, but this was a very savvy move by GM John Elway nonetheless.

Chiefs trade #28 overall pick to 49ers

The Trade:

Chiefs receive:

• 37th overall pick (530 points)
• 105th overall pick (84 points)
• 178th overall pick (20 points)
• => Total value: 634 points

49ers receive:

• 28th overall pick (700 points)
• 249th overall pick (1 point)
• => Total value: 661 points

Trade Value Chart Says:

Another trade that closely matches with the trade value chart. The 27 point difference corresponds to a mid 5th-round pick.

Jack Says:

This is perhaps the most interesting trade of the evening for me. The ESPN announcers chastised San Francisco for moving up to select Joshua Garnett, and after learning that the 49ers selected a Pac 12 prospect to join Chip Kelly, that was my initial reaction, too. However, from a value standpoint, the 49ers got the better end of the deal (albeit slightly). My conclusion is that this trade was more about the Chiefs being desperate to trade down rather than the 49ers being desperate to trade up. It was rumored that the Chiefs wanted Paxton Lynch, so after getting sniped by Denver, they were probably looking to move down no matter what.

I’m only doing one mock this year, so I better make it count! Here’s my take on the 2016 NFL Draft. Feel free to yell at me @Ethanhamm on Twitter.

1. LA (from TEN) – Jared Goff, QB, Cal

While I originally thought that the Rams would look to Wentz, Goff seems to be the apple of their eye. Jeff Fisher likes his ability to read the whole field and thinks that he will be the ideal key to unlock Tavon Austin. I would not be surprised if the Rams utilize their next couple of picks to find sleepers at wide receiver and cornerback. Some names to remember are Paul McRoberts (WR) and Nick Van Hoose (CB).

2. PHI (from CLE) – Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State

Despite the protests of many Eagles fans, Wentz appears to be their guy at the 2 spot. Personally, I do not see much difference on tape between Wentz and Paxton Lynch. Lynch, in many ways, actually is a more pro-ready prospect than Wentz, who has no pocket presence and needs time to develop. However, Lynch has shoulder issues and drug rumors surrounding him, while Wentz is uber-competitive and a choir boy off the field (despite his bad Tweets). The Eagles prioritized finding a face of their franchise who would not embarrass them with extracurricular activities. Now, Wentz has a chance to grow with Nelson Agholor, Jordan Matthews, and Zach Ertz in the super competitive NFC East.

3. SD – Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State

In a vacuum, Jalen Ramey is the best defender in this class, and perhaps the top player. The Chargers need help behind Jason Verrett, Brandon Flowers, and Casey Hayward. Ramsey reminds me a lot of LA Ram Trumaine Johnson. I think the first couple of years will be a struggle for Ramsey, as he has some issues with getting wild in his backpedal and his technique needs work. However, given time, he could be the best player in this draft class. I would love to see Ramsey get opportunities as a robber-hybrid like Johnson does on the Rams.

4. DAL – Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

The Cowboys have three players that they are considering with #4 overall – Ramsey, Zeke Elliott, and Joey Bosa. Scouts and Jerry Jones have Ramsey as their top name, but with him gone, I think the owner will push for Zeke and make him the selection. Zeke is one of the most polished running backs to enter the professional ranks in quite a while, and behind the Dallas offensive line he has a chance to shine. Also, for what it’s worth, I do think Dallas could look quarterback later in the draft. I just don’t see them doing so at #4 overall.

5. JAX – Myles Jack, LB, UCLA

There is a lot of smoke percolating around the Jacksonville pick. However, despite some fears about his injury, I’m going to stick with Myles Jack here. Jack is a super athletic linebacker prospect with the ability to play linebacker or safety. Offensive tackles, edges, and defensive tackles do not make sense for the Jaguars, as they have young depth at all of those positions. The Jaguars may try to move down, but if they cannot, I think they will sit tight and take Jack.

6. BAL – Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss

There has been ample smoke from Baltimore’s camp that they value Ronnie Stanley over Laremy Tunsil. I find this hard to believe given Ozzie Newsome’s past track record of sticking to their board no matter what from a talent perspective. Objectively speaking, Tunsil is more talented than Stanley, plays with a meaner streak, and has the potential to be Baltimore’s best bookend since Jonathan Ogden.

I also did some research into Tunsil’s role with the Robert Nkemdiche hotel incident. While I have yet to receive further police information from Atlanta (because Georgia’s FOIA protocols, as many people will attest, are awful), I did confirm that Tunsil was not involved, at all, with Nkemdiche’s fall. Tunsil, by all accounts, is someone who takes his NFL dreams seriously and would not let it slip away from him by making a careless error. If he goes to the Ravens, the team will profit. I think Ozzie is creating a bit of a smokescreen with the Stanley buzz. I cannot see him passing up Tunsil at 6.

7. MIA (from SF) – Joey Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State

I’m not going to be projecting exact trades in this mock draft in terms of compensation, but I think the Dolphins find a way to move up from 13 and snag Bosa here. He’s a local guy and all parties feel he could benefit by staying close to home, where he has a solid support system. The Niners have a number of guys that they are targeting, mainly on the offensive side of the ball although DeForest Buckner could come into play here as well. While I could see them staying here and picking one of the offensive tackles, I think Chip will look to accrue more selections and move down. With this pick, the Dolphins would get more dangerous on the defensive side of the ball with a bona fide top five talent while the Niners pick up more assets for their own rebuilding process.

8. CLE (from PHI) – DeForest Buckner, EDGE/DL, Oregon

From the beginning of the draft process, I have heard that the Browns like Buckner a good deal. If he slips past the Niners, I think he could be a really good fit in Cleveland as as defensive end in Ray Horton’s scheme. While the Browns also need a safety and a wide receiver, the markets are such that they can snag those positions later in the draft. There is a dearth of elite power edge talent in the NFL, though, and Bucker fills this need to a T. If the Browns had stayed at 2, they would have considered Buckner. Now, they get him at 8 – a steal!

9. TEN (from TB) – Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame

The Titans should be active this year. While the Bucs love Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves and Michigan State OT Jack Conklin, they also need more picks to build up depth on their roster. Titans GM Jon Robinson is friends with Bucs GM Jason Licht, and that Patriots connection should enable them to make a deal here. Stanley would slot in opposite Taylor Lewan on the Tennessee offensive line and, ideally, give Marcus Mariota a pair of solid bookends for the next decade.

10. NYG – Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida

Even though the Giants just signed Janoris Jenkins, this is a team that sticks to its board. Prince Amukamara is gone and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is injury prone and unexceptional. Hargreaves is a physical specimen with amazing explosiveness who can play both boundary cornerback and slot cornerback in the NFL. He has drawn many Leon Hall comparisons thanks to this versatility, although I personally think his game mirrors Patriots star Malcolm Butler because of his recovery ability and ball skills. Hargreaves has amazingly quick feet and change of direction ability. This is a perfect fit of player and team.

11. CHI – Shaq Lawson, EDGE, Clemson

Buzz has been percolating for a while that Shaq Lawson is the Bears’ guy, so this is where he will slot. Lawson has the perfect blend of great off-field credentials and top-notch on-field marks. He has burst, strength, and a pass rush move set to bring an immediate positive impact to the table for the Bears. It should also be noted that Lawson would be tasked with going against the left tackles of the NFC North, all of whom are horrid. He could get 10-12 sacks as a rookie in this division.

12. NO – Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville

The Saints could go a lot of different ways with this pick, including EDGE Leonard Floyd from Georgia or one of the wide receivers. However, Rankins provides an interior pass rush that this defense sorely needs. What jumps out on tape with Rankins is his field awareness. He always knows where the ball is and rarely ever bites on fakes. Rankins also put on a show at the Senior Bowl with his spin moves and quickness. Rankins has the potential to be a phenomenal defensive tackle at the next level, and the Saints seem like a good fit for him.

13. SF (from PHI via MIA) – Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State

Michael Thomas is the top wide receiver on the Niners board per multiple sources, and his ability to separate and get open quickly appeal greatly to Chip Kelly. He reminds me of ex-Cowboys receiver Miles Austin, and while I personally have other receivers ranked over him, I do think Thomas has the potential to be a very good player in the league. The Niners are also fans of Will Fuller and a number of other wide receiver prospects.

14. OAK – William Jackson, CB, Houston

Another CB from the University of Houston goes to Oakland – this one, however, does not come with any health-related baggage. Jackson is a rangy defender who runs a 4.3 40 and has great ball skills. He shows a natural ability to tip away passes at the last second, and he may be even more effective in the pros if he learns how to use the sideline better. Jackson reminds me a bit of Lions cornerback Darius Slay thanks to his ability at the line of scrimmage. I think he may get burned from time to time, but the potential is there for Jackson to be a top cornerback in this class.

15. TB (from LA via TEN) – Jack Conklin, OT Michigan State

Conklin could go as high as 7 to the 49ers, but in this iteration he falls to 15 where the Buccaneers snap him up. Conklin projects as more of a right tackle than left tackle to me, but he does show good consistency in his footwork. He can be beaten by power in certain instances, but he has the potential to grow in an OL system and compensate for those issues with the right coaching. I think him next to the likes of an uber-athletic Ali Marpet and consistent tight end Cameron Brate could be beneficial for his game, as Marpet can help on the bigger linemen and Brate is underrated against edge rushers.

16. DET – Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama

Teams LOVE Ryan Kelly, and if Jackson is off the board I think he ends up in Detroit. Kelly is an Alex Mack style center with great hand technique, ability off the line of scrimmage, and intelligence in terms of protection adjustments. Kelly would offer the Lions a consistent option in the middle of their line and help them open up holes for their young running backs.

17. ATL – Leonard Floyd, EDGE/LB, Georgia

The Falcons would be thrilled if Floyd lasts to their pick, as he can give them a young puzzle piece to pair with Vic Beasley. Floyd also has the ability to play some middle linebacker if necessary, with certain teams comparing him to Patriots middle linebacker Jamie Collins. While I personally would not rate Floyd THAT highly, he would give Atlanta some versatility and options in their defensive front. He might even shift Paul Worrilow over to the bench, which would be a boon for the Falcons, as Worrilow is terrible. Atlanta may also pick Darron Lee here instead, but given Floyd’s locality and versatility, he gets the nod here.

18. IND – Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State

I am a huge fan of Lee’s, and given the young linebacker’s measurables this would be a steal for the Colts. Lee has the ability to be a Lavonte David type cornerstone in some team’s back seven. Indianapolis has a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and Lee would help boost their defensive speed a fair amount. The Colts should focus on the defense in this draft, and picking players like Lee would only position them better in the weak AFC South. Other guys they may focus on later include safety Justin Simmons from Boston College and defensive tackle D.J. Reader from Clemson.

19. BUF – Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss

Nkemdiche is the highest ceiling defensive tackle in this draft class, and Rex Ryan loves taking chances on players like that. Nkemdiche is an interesting guy – he is not a stupid man by any means. He is just someone who needs to show that he is willing to put the requisite focus on football if he is to be a success. There are some drug questions surrounding Nkemdiche, specifically regarding synthetic marijuana (spice), which his brother was hospitalized for using in 2015. However, based on conversations with people at Mississippi, Nkemdiche just needs to fall in with the right crowd. Maybe the #BillsMafia can round him into shape. When his mind is in the right place, Nkemdiche can be a dominant interior defensive force

20. NYJ – Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

The Jets have long been eyeing Paxton Lynch, although I have also heard that Chan Gailey is a big fan of some of the mid-round quarterbacks, too. Given the way that the board fell in this case, Lynch makes a lot of sense. He is as good as, if not better, than Carson Wentz in every single aspect of being a quarterback. Lynch would go to New York with two elite level wide receiver and a great safety option in Matt Forte. This would be a perfect fit and position the Jets well to contend in the AFC East.

21. WSH – Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama

Reed is an unsung defensive tackle with great functional strength, athletic ability, and the intelligence to fill gaps in the Washington defense. While Scott McCloughan would have loved to get Ryan Kelly here, Reed is a nice consolation prize. He can team up with Preston Smith and Ryan Kerrigan to give this team’s defense some nice, athletic options on their defensive line.

22. HOU – Josh Doctson, WR, TCU

While there has been buzz for both Corey Coleman and Will Fuller here, Doctson seems to be the best of both. Doctson has the best tape of any wide receiver in this class, and also tested extremely well from a SPARQ standpoint. 1+1=2, and I do not think the Texans expect him to be at their pick. If he is, they should jump at the opportunity to pair him across from Nuk Hopkins.

23. MIN – Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss

The Vikings need to give Teddy Bridgewater some help at the wide receiver position, and Treadwell is a playmaker who can get vertical and make plays at the catch point. Bridgewater has gotten a really raw deal compared to his young QB counterparts when it comes to help at the wide receiver position. Derek Carr got Amari Cooper last year, and Blake Bortles has Allan Robinson in tow. With Treadwell, Bridgewater would finally have a legitimate number one target.

24. CIN – Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame

At the end of this mini-run of wide receivers sit the Bengals, who will jump on Fuller if he is there. He has the athleticism to get open vertically, the intelligence that has dazzled teams in private interviews, and the footwork to potentially grow as a route runner. While Fuller’s hands are a question mark, the reward should outweigh the risk in this case. Coleman is another option, but I think the Bengals will lean Fuller.

25. PIT – Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State

Apple slips further than expected in this mock draft, but the Steelers will jump on him. While Pittsburgh also likes Karl Joseph, given his recent injury issues I am unsure if he will still get Round 1 billing. Apple is long, lanky, and has the ability to play press man effectively. He can grow in Pittsburgh, as his game is reminiscent of Ike Taylor’s.

26. SEA – Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama

Why not? With Marshawn Lynch gone, the Seahawks could use a running back, and Henry’s measurables are off the charts. He could be a perfect fit for Seattle’s smash mouth offense as a replacement to Beast Mode and a complement to Thomas Rawls. Other players to keep an eye on here include Indiana’s OT Jason Spriggs, Clemson CB/S TJ Green, and Mississippi State DT Chris Jones.

27. GB – Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State

Speaking of Jones, he fits in here with the Packers, who need help in the interior of their defense. Jones has the talent top be a top 10 player in this draft class when it’s all said and done, and he fits in well with the likes of Mike Daniels in this fearsome front seven.

28. CLE (from KC) – Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor

The Browns MAY be able to wait and get Corey Coleman a bit later in the draft, but they decide to move up and just take him as a safety measure. RG3 could use a field stretcher and Coleman may be the most explosive receiver in this draft. The Chiefs move down to 32, where they could pick up more picks or potentially bolster the defensive side of the ball with a back seven player.

29. JAX (from ARZ) – Keanu Neal, S, Florida

The Jaguars move up to take a safety prospect they crave. The Jaguars have added Prince Amukamara this offseason and Davon House seems to have the other cornerback spot solidified. However, they are still missing a legitimate over the top safety. I think Karl Joseph would have been in play here if not for the uncertainty of his injury – this is a “Win Now” season for the Jaguars and having two first round picks coming off of severe injuries, plus Dante Fowler having not played at all  in 2015, seems imprudent. Instead, the Jaguars take local player Neal, who can provide a reasonable facsimile of a free safety while also laying the wood now and again.

30. CAR – Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson

The Panthers devalue the cornerback position, so even though Mackensie Alexander is on the board, I think Carolina ends up selecting teammate Dodd instead. Dodd reminds me a bit of ex-Dolphin and Jaguar Matt Roth. I think he would be a 5-7 sack guy in an ideal situation, while also providing top notch run defense ability. Dodd should slot in on that dynamic defensive line and help fill in the hole left by Jared Allen.

31. DEN – Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State

The Broncos have been looking at quarterbacks for a while, and although I am not the biggest fan of Cook’s, he makes sense for Denver. Cook’s biggest issue is that he cannot read defenses well, and often gets baited into bad throws by linebackers playing shallow zones. He also has some attitude questions. That being said, Denver has receivers that can create after the catch for him, and morale in the Mile High City could not be better. I can’t bring myself to mock Christian Hackenberg here, so Cook it is.

A trade happens – either on draft day, or right before (like the recent Tennessee/L.A. and Cleveland/Philadelphia trades).

What type of analysis do you hear and read from sports reporters?

Usually, it’s that one team ‘got a haul of picks’ while the other team ‘paid a lot to move up and get their guy’.

The problem with that analysis is that it isn’t actually analysis.

Who got the better end of the deal objectively?

Is there a way to measure the value of these trades without having to predict which players they might end up with (which is impossible)?

When trades are lopsided, what is the driving force?

Let’s answer those questions.

A Quick History of Draft Pick Trades

The NFL Draft has been going on decades, but it’s not particularly useful to look at the full history, as the game has simply changed so much over the years (it would also be WAY too much work).

The history I chose to look at is 2011 – present. Why 2011? Because that was the first draft year where the rookie salaries were capped and structured. To give you an idea of how significant this change was:

In 2010, the 1st overall pick – Sam Bradford – received a 6 year, $78 million contract ($50 million guaranteed).

In 2011, the 1st overall pick – Cam Newton – received a 4 year, $22 million contract ($22 million guaranteed).

By limiting the values of rookie contracts, teams could become more aggressive in trading up to the top picks in the draft, because they wouldn’t have to give up a ton of draft pick ammunition and a massive contract to an unknown rookie. They’d still have to give up the draft pick ammunition (see the L.A. and Philly trades this year) but the rookies they select are guaranteed to sign affordable contracts.

So with that, let’s take a look (I got my trade data from Pro Football Reference, and did a lot – way too much – data splicing by myself).

• Since 2011, there have been 121 trades involving just draft picks (I omitted trades involving actual players).
• That comes out to an average of 7.5 trades per NFL team. The most frequent traders are the 49ers (18 trades), Browns (16 trades), and Vikings (14 trades). At the opposite end are the Bengals and Chiefs (just 2 trades each).
• The Bucs, Chargers, Giants, Jets, and Falcons love to trade up – they’ve done so 23 out of the 25 times that they’ve executed draft trades.
• On the other side of the spectrum, the Redskins, Cardinals, Raiders, and Seahawks love to trade down – they’ve done so 30 out of 34 times.

Now the obvious question: how do we tell who is getting the better end of a trade? One way to measure performance is by using the NFL Trade Value Chart.

The NFL Trade Value Chart

This chart – with credit going to Jimmy Johnson for its creation – attempts to quantify the value of every NFL pick using a points system. For two easy examples, let’s look at the two recent trades between Tennessee/L.A. and Cleveland/Philly:

Titans/Rams Trade

Titans receive:

• Pick 15 (round 1) – 1050 points
• Pick 43 (round 2) – 470 points
• Pick 45 (round 2) – 450 points
• Pick 76 (round 3) – 210 points
• Rams’ 2017 round 1 pick – 1000 points (used the middle of the round (pick 16) as an average since we don’t know the actual pick)
• Rams’ 2017 round 3 pick – 195 points (used the middle of the round (pick 79) for same reason)
• => Titans total points: 3375

• Pick 1 (round 1) – 3000 points
• Pick 113 (round 4) – 68 points
• Pick 177 (round 6) – 20.2 points
• => Rams total points: 3088

On the x-axis, we have the highest pick involved in the trade. For example, if we plotted the Rams/Titans trade on this graph, its x-axis value would be 1. If we plotted the Browns/Eagles trade on this graph, its x-axis value would be 2. And so on.

• 50% of all trades netted a difference of 14 points or less, which equates to merely a 7th round draft pick.
• 66% of all trades netted a difference of 28 points or less, which equates to a 6th round draft pick. Not quite as worthless as a 7th rounder, but still pretty worthless – scrub / washed up players are traded consistently for 6th round compensation.
• 85% of all trades (104 out of 121, so nearly all of them) netted a difference of 100 points, which equates to a 4th round draft pick.

Another way to look at the 85% conclusion is that teams don’t seem to be bothered by giving up the equivalent of a 4th round pick in value if it means they can execute the trade they want to execute.

Winners and Losers

We’ve already reasoned that, about 85% of the time, draft pick trades are pretty equal. So what about that other 15% (or 17 of the 121 total trades)?

For starters, we know someone is winning. When you sum the differences in value (our y-axis values above) for those 17 lopsided trades , the total is 6,066 points or about 357 points per trade. In other words, within those 17 trades, the losing team was, on average, giving up the 54th overall pick for free.

What could cause teams to behave so recklessly? Let’s keep digging.

• 8 of those 17 trades involved a team trading for one of the top six picks in the draft, and those 8 trades accounted for about 70 percent of the 6,066-point disparity. In other words, trades involving the top six picks in the drafts are usually a rip off for someone.
• The poster child for this conclusion is the RGIII trade mentioned above, where the Redskins gave up the 6th overall pick, 39th overall pick, and two future 1st round picks to move up to the 2nd overall pick. Washington lost 1510 points in that deal, which corresponds to the 7th overall pick!
• Surprisingly, the team trading down isn’t always the one getting the great deal. In 3 of the 8 trades, the team trading up actually got the better end in terms of the Trade Value Chart.

Finally, we have some nice conclusions. Trading in the top six is usually bad for someone, and that makes sense. The NFL is a business, and trade talks are nothing more than business negotiations. Business negotiations are decided by leverage. If one party is desperate – whether to move up or down in the draft – they are likely to get smoked in negotiations.

So, what’s the message to NFL GMs? If you’re in the top 6, simply plan to stay put, and let the desperate teams come to you until they make you an offer you can’t refuse. I said it in my salary cap article and I’ll say it again here… I don’t think it’s that hard. Seriously.

*Throws are in no particular order*

1.

You have to feel bad for the safety. This guy already has to help cover two routes at once; that’s hard enough. Then Boykin drops a dime directly into the receiver’s bread basket from 25 yards out- on 3rd-and-12, no less. This poor safety didn’t have a chance at making the play, even with help (very loose use of that word) from his teammates. You can’t defend a perfect pass.

2.

I’m not going to pretend to know what is going on here. I’m not sure anyone knew what was going on here. Boykin saw the play crumbling in front of him and knew he had to get out of the pocket. Unfortunately, a K-State defender followed him, but the Boyking planned on getting the ball out anyway. Much like we saw Vernon Adams do, Boykin found a way to get the ball out to a teammate. As ugly and irresponsible as the play appeared to be, TCU ended up with a 20 yard gain after nearly losing a few yards instead.

3.

Boykin’s deep throws are so pretty. Here, Boykin continues to separate himself from the chaos while simultaneously keeping his shoulders squared to make the throw. What is most impressive, though, is there seems to be a smooth improvisational element here. The play looks to be a Run-Pass Option with a slant as the pass option, but defenders littered the area where the throw needed to be. Boykin and his receiver immediately got on the same page and knew the play had to go deep. About 40 yards later, the TCU receiver got a shot at a ball placed well over a few defenders.

4.

Boykin is always wildin’. He knows what he is doing, though. He isn’t trying to run the ball here, he’s trying to get away from a sack. How the defense was not able to bring down the slippery bastard, I dont know, but they didn’t. Once he gets free, Boykin looks up and tries to find an open throw somewhere, anywhere. To have the control, athleticism, intelligence, confidence and arm to complete this play is incredibly impressive.

5.

45 yards over three defenders and just short of the boundary. There is absolutely no margin for error. If there’s ever been a question about Boykin’s arm talent, this play easily silences that. There are very few quarterbacks at any level of football who replicate this throw. This sort of placement is so rare to see.

Let’s take a look at the first- through third-round edge defenders drafted since 2005 to see if this is factual. Not included in the data set are Tank Carradine, Phillip Merling, Victor Abiamiri, Shawne Merriman, Justin Tuck, Tamba Hali and Dan Cody, since I do not have full data on those players coming out of college.

We’ll look at Lawson’s combine effort through the scope of Waldo, since that’s a public metric. Speed and Explosive Power are composite scores, taking in the 40-yard dash/10-yard split and the vertical jump/broad jump, respectively. Twitch is his form of testing a player’s short shuttle, but by taking into account of a player’s 10-yard split. Agility is just simply a density adjusted three-cone.

The threshold set is going to be Lawson’s combine results, per the official combine sheet. In Speed, Lawson ranks 40th out of 112 prospects. Here are the eliminated prospects:

In Agility, Lawson ranks 16th out of the remaining 40 prospects. Here are the eliminated prospects:

Twitch narrows down the list from 16 to 5. Here are the eliminated prospects:

The last five players are Lawson, Von Miller, Melvin Ingram, Turk McBride and Bruce Irvin. I’m not going to pretend to know what the temperature on McBride was coming out, but the other three were considered athletic pass-rushers. If we ran the last filter, Explosive Power, Lawson would be sitting by himself, as no top-100 EDGE prospect since at least 2005 has been able to hit above his marks in all four measurements of Waldo’s formula.

What you think of these metrics may vary, but you can’t state that Lawson isn’t a good athlete. That’s just not true.

*Throws are in no particular order*

1.

This play is a testament to Adams’ mechanics. After having to move from his spot because nothing seemed to be open, Adams rolls to his left. Though, instead of just sprinting out, Adams stays conscious of his body’s positioning and makes sure he is ready to make a throw at any time. Eventually, the throw comes open and Adams squares his shoulders to deliver a 25 yard strike to put the Ducks ahead.

Notice how Adams had his eyes up throughout the entire process, too. Even when he is moving, he is focused on finding an open receiver down the field. As soon as he sees an opportunity, he takes a couple of steps to reset himself for the throw. Very few passers go through this process as effortlessly as Adams does, let alone complete the throw.

2.

Once again, Adams impresses with his nuance. Unlike the last play, this rollout is designed. Adams still keeps his eyes up just as well and, again, resets very quickly once he realizes his receiver is open. For Adams to have reset so comfortably in such a quick motion is rare to see. Very few passers, such as Russell Wilson, are capable of doing this consistently, but Adams can. Of course, as well as he sets up, Adams still needs to make a killer throw. 25-plus yards down the field between three defenders, Adams still rifles in a stunning throw for one of his six (!) touchdowns against USC.

3.

If you haven’t caught on by now, Adams has a habit of making sure his upper body is ready to make a throw at any time. Much like the first play, Adams is forced out of the pocket to his left. Even with two rushers forcing him to move off his spot, Adams never loses sight of his man down the field. Rather, he takes a few steps to his left, holds the ball until he knows he can complete the throw and then lets it rip. He has the upper body control and strength to complete the pass without resetting and stepping into the throw like most analysts want to see on every play. Despite getting off the throw in a seemingly reckless fashion, he drops the pass over multiple defenders and away from another, placing the ball in a spot where only his receiver has a legitimate shot at it.

4.

This play is just wild. One can analyze each part of the play and go through the process of how this happened, but there is no way to truly give this play the justice it deserves. Simply, Adams managed a broken pocket on 3rd-and-10 to make a throw while a defender drags him to the ground. This play is a sack 99% of the time for any quarterback, yet Adams has the poise and ability to wiggle his way into a good enough spot to get this throw off for a first down.

5.

Many seem to think Adams can’t hang in the pocket and deliver throws with bodies around him. Well, this play was a shining display of his ability to do just that. The interior of the pocket is crumbling, but Adams wants to make this throw regardless. He stands strong despite the closing defender and places the ball right in his receiver’s hands, allowing him to keep his stride and keep his distance from the defensive back. This throw is on 3rd-and-4, no less. All sorts of pressure were on Adams’ shoulder and he delivered a beautiful throw to open up the scoring and give Oregon an early lead.

If a player retires, your team gets all of that salary cap money back, right? Wrong.

My team traded away a bad, overpriced player, so our salary cap is no longer affected! False.

If you knew the answers to all three of these questions, you might not need to read this (but you still should, because it’s funny). If you didn’t know the answers, and you claim to follow the NFL offseason in any capacity, then this is required reading.

Intro

In my last post, I picked a few big-money free agent contracts to illustrate how a big-money contract can be manageable – or horrible.

One surefire sign of a bad contract is significant dead money hits in out-years. Should a team choose to terminate that contract prematurely, they would incur a cap hit even though the player is no longer on the team. There are several ways in which dead money can be incurred. The most prevalent example is a signing bonus, which is paid instantly but gets prorated over the life of the contract for salary cap purposes. OverTheCap provides an in-depth summary of dead money here.

In this post, we will look deeper at which teams and positions are suffering dead money effects the most. And of course, poke fun at the failures.

Dead Money by Team

Here are some summary facts on dead money in the NFL right now (all numbers courtesy of OverTheCap):

Total Dead Money: $232,760,111

Average Dead Money Per Team: $7,273,753 (~ 4.5% of total salary cap)*

Most Dead Money: $24,971,845 (Saints) (!!!!!!!!)

Least Dead Money: $193,271 (Bengals)

*Although the 2016 NFL league-wide salary cap is $155,270,000, each team has a team-adjusted salary cap because there are carryovers and adjustments from the previous year.

Capital Offenders

Let’s pause for a moment to rip on the Saints, whose dead money penalties count for a whopping $25 million, or 16 percent of their team-adjusted salary cap.

To give you an idea of how much money that is: if the Saints had that extra $25 million in cap space, they could have signed the two biggest defensive free agents – Olivier Vernon and Malik Jackson – to the same contracts that they signed with their new teams (the Giants and Jaguars, respectively).

In fact, there’s only one player in the entire NFL with a 2016 cap hit higher than $25 million, and he plays for… who else? The Saints (Drew Brees’ cap hit is $30 million). Irony at it’s finest.

To Saints GM Mickey Loomis: I have only one question.

Other guilty parties: Atlanta ($18.8M), Philadelphia ($15.1M), Detroit ($14.6M), Cleveland ($13.5M), and Buffalo ($13.1M). Unsurprisingly, none of these teams are beating down the door where the Lombardi Trophy is held.

Smart Shoppers

All is not lost, as some teams actually make good decisions. The best example is the Bengals, whose strategy has been to build through the draft and hand out big money to homegrown players instead of unknown free agents. Because of that strategy, Cincinnati is sitting on less than $200K in dead money, which is substantially less than the minimum salary for an NFL rookie.

Other savvy shoppers: Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Green Bay, and Dallas (all less than $1 million in dead money).

We can draw an obvious, but nonetheless important, conclusion from this information: Avoiding dead money is very helpful, but it’s not enough to win. Of the six teams with less than $1 million in dead money hits, two (Tampa Bay, Jacksonville) are among the least talented teams in the NFL.

Dead Money by Position

Now let’s take a look at each position across the entire league. To make my life easier, I only looked at players whose dead money hit was $1M or more – the idea being, with those players, something in the plan definitely went wrong. This approach still let’s us look at about 90% of the total dead money in the league, so the data is plenty good enough to draw conclusions from.

A picture is a thousand words:

This graph shows:

• (numbers in black) – the number of players in each position grouping that have a dead money hit greater than $1 million.
• (blue bar) – the league-wide total dead money for each position grouping.
• (orange bar) – the maximum dead money for a single player in each position grouping.
• (silver bar) – the average dead money per player in each position grouping.

And here is the makeup of each position grouping:

• OL: this includes all five offensive line positions (LT, LG, C, RG, RT).
• DL: this includes all 4-3 defensive linemen, all 3-4 defensive linemen, and 3-4 outside linebackers. In other words, players who play on the line of scrimmage.
• LB: this includes all 4-3 linebackers and 3-4 inside linebackers.
• DB: this includes corners and safeties.
• RB, TE, and QB are self explanatory.

Let’s take a closer look at each position group. I’ll share my observations along with some general conclusions at the end. And I’ll definitely make fun of teams for a few of these terrible contracts.

Offensive Line (14 players, $51 million in dead money)

Observations: I included all five offensive line positions in the same group, so it’s not surprising that they are leading the way in terms of dead money.

Overall, the group is pretty balanced. It is made up of 6 tackles and 8 guards, and has a mix of younger and older players. It’s interesting that there are no centers in the group. Let’s take a look at the worst offenders to see if there are any outliers:

OT Sam Baker: $6,400,000

OT Gosder Cherilus: $5,800,000

OG Ben Grubbs: $5,200,000

OG Jahri Evans: $5,100,000

OT Will Beatty: $5,000,000

Pretty straightforward. The Sam Baker signing was predictably disastrous, as Baker was injury prone and never a particularly effective player. The Falcons still thought it was a good idea to give him a 6 year, $41 million contract ($18.25 million guaranteed). I wonder if then Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff had just watched The Dark Knight for the first time prior to offering the deal.

Biggest culprit: The Falcons, with two players (Baker and G Jon Asamoah) totaling $10.3 million in dead money. Whoops.

Wide Receivers (12 players, $39 million in dead money)

Observations: It’s surprising that wide receivers would account for more dead money than defensive linemen. Teams carry many more defensive linemen than they do wide receivers, and we know that defensive linemen often receive mammoth contracts in free agency. Let’s look at the worst wide receiver offenders to see if there’s an outlier:

Calvin Johnson: $12,916,000

Dwayne Bowe: $4,600,000

Roddy White: $3,775,000

Anquan Boldin: $2,727,000

Marques Colston: $2,700,000

Sure enough, one player – Calvin Johnson – is driving this number up. But wait… didn’t Johnson retire? Shouldn’t the Lions be free from a penalty? Not at all. This article explains in detail why Johnson is still counting against the Lions’ 2016 cap. There will always be an unforeseen impact from a player retiring suddenly, but the Lions worsened Johnson’s cap situation significantly because of how they structured and managed the contract.

Another interesting observation for wide receivers is that the top six players on the list (the five above plus Andre Johnson) are all over 30 years old. Avoiding old, declining wide receivers in free agency seems obvious, but hey, what do I know?

Biggest Culprit: The Lions, courtesy of bad luck (early retirement) and some poor contract management. The Browns deserve an honorable mention here, too, because of the truly terrible contract they gave Dwayne Bowe a year ago.

Defensive Line (8 players, $37 million in dead money)

Defensive linemen have the highest average dead money per player at $4.6 million (compare that to a $3.6 million dead money average for the offensive line and a $3.3 million dead money average for wide receivers). Let’s look at the worst offenders to find out why:

Junior Galette: $12,100,000

Mario Williams: $7,000,000

Jason Hatcher: $4,500,000

Charles Johnson: $4,020,000

Tamba Hali: $4,000,000

Another outlier. Galette didn’t retire, and he’s actually a young player (just 28); however, he was released due to legal problems just one year into a 4 year, $41.5 million extension ($23 million guaranteed). Galette had a history of off-field issues, so this wasn’t a surprising result. Giving Galette a bunch of money was a Joker-like decision, so I’m wondering if Mickey Loomis and Thomas Dimitroff had a Dark Knight slumber party, or something.

DB, LB, RB, TE, QB

I combined these groups because there wasn’t much to see, and also because I know your attention span has limits. A few observations:

• Despite being traded, Byron Maxwell still counts for $4.8 million in dead money against the Eagles’ cap. The Eagles won a sizeable victory by getting rid of Maxwell’s contract; however, this is a good example of how finding a trading partner doesn’t let you off scotch free.
• Teams are predictably stingy with running backs. There are only five RBs on the list, and only one has a dead money hit over $3 million (Demarco Murray at $4 million).
• While teams are stingy with RBs – not handing out much guaranteed money – they behave oppositely with QBs, handing out tons of guaranteed money without regard. And still, there is almost no dead money wrapped up in QBs around the league. The reason is that teams are simply willing to put up with expensive, underperforming quarterbacks because the position is too important.

Wrapping Up

Putting it all together:

• Dead money can cause significant problems for teams in terms of re-signing their talent and obtaining free agents (the Saints have 16% of their salary cap tied up with dead money).
• Effective management of dead money won’t win you a Super Bowl by itself, but messing it up will cripple your chances.
• Cap penalties from an unexpected player retirement are risks that can’t be ignored when signing older players to huge contracts.
• Signing old wide receivers and troublemakers to lucrative, multi-year contracts is a bad idea.
• Hiring Mickey Loomis or Thomas Dimitroff as your GM is an even worse idea, unless you just want to have Batman slumber parties and/or burn stacks of money.