The “Still Oakland” Raiders 2016 Offseason Preview

February 26, 2016 Ryan Playmaker Mentality 0

A Look Back to 2015…

If we’re being honest, the Raiders’ 2015 campaign played out as expected.

Personally, I had this team at 6 wins on the year, whereas certain other fans had “higher hopes” coming into things — which is fine. With optimism, however, there’s definitely a fine line between hope and simply embarrassing yourself with some lofty (unrealistic) projections. There’s a group of these fans in every fan base. This is all greatly exaggerated when you’re a fan of a franchise that has been struggling for the better part of 10 (or more) seasons. For those Raiders fans, when Weeks 7 and 8 came and went, that hope felt “real” for the first time in a long time (since, like, last season…when we said the same thing I’m sure).

Coupled with “those fans”, you of course have the media. Media attention is weird, especially when you’re the perennial loser. You’re either being reminded just how bad your team is or the positivity catches you off guard, leaving you not knowing how to react. Week 7 saw the Raiders traveling on the road to San Diego. All the bye week narratives were in full effect and optimism was high, but divisional games are never gimme’s. Even with some confidence, I’m not sure anyone thought that we’d see this Raiders team. Derek Carr cooked all day long, managing 24 of 31 for 289 and 3 touchdowns – a cozy box score effort. Amari Cooper had quite the outing as well, adding a cool 5-133-1 line and some highlights of his own:

If only Amari was taller, or something, right? Shoutout my guy Nick for this one:

A win on the road is always big, but finding yourself the winners of two in a row with a few more “winnable games” next on the schedule is even bigger. At this point, it appeared as though Oakland was going to put themselves squarely in the playoff discussion — and that’s right where they found themselves after Week 8.

Del Rio’s team made a statement at home with a 34-20 win over the Jets, who were as hot as anyone at the time. There wasn’t just playoff talk, but legitimate praise for Raiders’ General Manager Reggie McKenzie. With the steady and elevated play from Carr and the real deal that was Amari Cooper – coupled with a few smart, effective offseason transactions that landed Crabtree and others – times were changing in Oakland. Were the Oakland Raiders relevant again? I can show you better than I can tell you…

This was overzealous:

Strong work from Gregg Rosenthal:

A look at what could be by SI’s Andy Benoit:

The Washington Post’s Mike Renner, via PFF:

Finally, this piece came later, but it’s probably my favorite read of the bunch. Bill’s really good at this stuff:

Needless to say, it was wise to enjoy it while it lasted. In typical Raiders fashion, the wheels came off.

What appears to be a close game if you’re looking at the score alone, in all reality, really wasn’t. This team had no answer for Antonio Brown. Not many teams did 2015. Not many teams were as embarrassed as Del Rio’s crew was, either. Arguably the best wide receiver in the game, AB put on an absolute clinic hauling in 17 grabs for 284 yards on 23 targets. Seventeen catches. Seventeen of them. Sixteen plus one. To say he shredded this defense would be a gross understatement.

In the end, you’re taking 7 wins over the 3 and 4 win seasons that have plagued this franchise from 2012 – 2014, and plenty of years prior. Additionally, 7 wins feels a whole lot better when you look at some key positions on this roster and realize who you have in place.

The Core

For the 2016 season, it appears as though this coaching staff is returning in its entirety. Also weird, right? The Raiders have routinely found themselves in the headlines; whether searching for a new head coach or attempting to find the next coordinator with some answers. I guess we’ll get to see what this “continuity” thing is all about.

You’re afforded continuity with success. While “success” isn’t exactly 7 wins, if you take a step back, you have to be pleased with the direction this team is headed. The Raiders’ seem to have their own “big 3” in place at this point, thanks to Reggie McKenzie. Looking deeper, I’d absolutely throw Gabe Jackson’s hat in the ring. He’s been a standout at LG since he stepped foot into the league. A Pro Bowl snub (who cares) this past year, he has All-Pro potential, and I look forward to him building on a solid 2015 effort. To pair with Jackson, Rodney Hudson has been as good as advertised, checking in as PFF’s 7th ranked center. Turning only 27 this year, I think we’re in store for more of the same.

Derek Carr – The Teddy vs. Derek debate may never end, but we’re here nonetheless. I won’t speak on his peers (Blake included), but I think Carr took a few steps forward in ’15. He’s not there quite yet, but the “franchise quarterback” questions may be answered sooner rather than later. Getting Latavius Murray going, for the most part, was critical, and adding a talent like Amari Cooper only helped the process along obviously. Continuing to build around the Raiders’ 3rd year signal-caller will be near the top of a growing priorities list this offseason.

Khalil Mack – Not much to say about this kid that hasn’t already been said (and probably better than I could). Mack keeps building on and justifying the hype that surrounded his name entering the season. The sky’s the limit, and he has a serious opportunity to become the NFL’s premiere defensive player — there’s my optimistic take for you guys, hopefully it’s not too hot. Bringing back Aldon Smith, hoping for the health of Mario Edwards Jr. (neck injury), and/or adding a pass rusher early via the draft (or free agency) will only contribute to the fun. Get familiar, if you haven’t already.

Amari Cooper – While the latter part of his rookie campaign was hobbled due to a nagging foot injury, I’m sure a majority came away impressed, all things considered. You saw the flashes; with some of the crispest routes in the league, and the big plays coming in bunches early on, Coop did it all. The rapport with Carr is clearly there, and on an offense that’s ascending (or so I’m told), I’d bank on those two making some more magic in 2016 and beyond. Cooper will be a critical part of this team’s success, how’s that for analysis?

Free Agency: Players to Address

Below is a list of free agents currently on the roster, and their designation:

Player Position Status Salary
Aldon Smith DE UFA $5,250,000
Justin Tuck DE UFA $5,000,000
Donald Penn LT UFA $4,800,000
Charles Woodson S UFA $3,200,000
Rod Streater WR UFA $2,356,000
Larry Asante S UFA $1,542,000
Andre Holmes WR UFA $1,542,000
Marquette King P UFA $1,542,000
Khalif Barnes RT UFA $1,500,000
Lorenzo Alexander OLB UFA $870,000
Thomas Gafford LS UFA $870,000
J’Marcus Webb LT UFA $745,000
Taylor Mays S UFA $745,000
Jeremy Ross WR RFA $660,000
Tony Bergstrom C UFA $651,504
Matt McCants LT RFA $585,000
Neiko Thorpe S RFA $585,000
Korey Toomer LB ERFA $510,000
Shelby Harris DE ERFA $510,000
Denico Autry DE ERFA $510,000
Matthew McGloin QB RFA $495,000
Benson Mayowa
 DE RFA $495,000
Seth Roberts WR ERFA $435,000
Gabe Holmes TE ERFA $435,000
Tevin McDonald CB ERFA $435,000

I’ve highlighted several names that stand out to me above, with some notes on a few of them below:

Aldon Smith – Smith was slapped with a one year ban, which ended his 2015 immediately and will put a majority of his 2016 on hold. To my knowledge, he’s eligible to return in November and (at the moment) all signs point to him reappearing in the East Bay. Aldon was vocal in his approval for Del Rio, McKenzie, and this team moving forward. Even with Justin Tuck headed for retirement (a close friend and mentor), I think there’s a mutual trust and understanding in place and something long-term gets done.

Donald Penn – This will be the most interesting chip to fall for the Raiders. Penn has made some folks forget about Jared Veldheer, a fan favorite, which may transcend any PFF ranking. Penn’s play tapered off as the season went on, so the holdup in contract talks comes as no surprise. I wouldn’t be opposed to throwing some money at Penn on a 1-2 year deal, but it appears his agent is after top tackle money for the long haul. McKenzie’s right to be hesitant if that’s the case.

Andre Holmes and Seth Roberts – Speaking of fan favorites, I’m not sure you’ll find a bigger name than Rod Streater. Streater flashed at times, but with an injury history of his own, couldn’t find the field as much as these fans would’ve liked. As a result, both Holmes and Roberts were bumped up the depth chart, as Rod kept warm on the sideline, most of the time as a healthy scratch. I’m not sure either name is a priority (2016 has a decent crop of wide receivers once again), but it’ll be interesting to see how McKenzie approaches both. Holmes is known for the acrobatics and his athletic ability, but bedeviled with inconsistent play. Roberts emerged out of nowhere, and yet many times, it felt as though he was Carr’s go-to.

Marquette King – A punter, and a pretty good punter at that. I mean, I won’t really keep you guys here, but I think he’ll get paid and I’m sure the jokes will ensue because #Raiders. On a related note, this is a good read, and worth your time. Al Davis would be proud.

Free Agency: Players to Target

According to OverTheCap.com, the Raiders have the second most salary cap space to play with entering this offseason, checking in at $71 million and change (only behind the Jaguars’ $74 million). While I’ve been outspoken against McKenzie in the recent past (I’m wrong a lot you guys), he’s done a masterful job with the contracts he’s handed out over the last few seasons. With that said, and to the frustration of many fans (myself included), the marquee names haven’t been there for the Raiders for various reasons.

Going into a notable 2015 offseason, many free agents were perhaps unsure of the product this team was going to put on the field. That’s what I like to tell myself anyway. Reports indicated that McKenzie at least made contact with the big fish like Ndamukong Suh and Randall Cobb, amongst others, but to no avail. Despite that, the Raiders have done well in acquiring some serviceable talent at reasonable prices while focusing on the draft. A couple of those names have already been mentioned above and I look for McKenzie to continue that trend this offseason. With Carr now entrenched and the dominating presence that is Khalil Mack, who wouldn’t want to play for this team? Right?

Moving on…

You can cross Von Miller, Josh Norman, Eric Berry, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Cordy Glenn of any “wish list” you have started. To me, these players (obviously) represent the “cream of the crop” in this class – we can throw Alshon Jeffery in that group as well – and I don’t see their current clubs allowing them to collect a paycheck elsewhere. It’s already been indicated that the Broncos plan to use their franchise tag on Von Miller. The same assumptions can be made for Norman and Berry at the very least, assuming they don’t hammer something out.

If I was forced to pick a player out of this group to potentially walk, I think you’re looking at Cordy Glenn. While I don’t see him in a different jersey, the Bills may be up against the wall. As a Raider fan – or a fan of any team in need of some assistance at the LT spot – you’d welcome Glenn with open arms. This obviously becomes a pressing issue for Oakland depending on how things shake out with Penn.

Buffalo currently sit at roughly $3 million over the cap. While these numbers hardly ever stop front offices from working something out – with the tag or otherwise – it’s simply something to note. Turning 27 in September, Glenn has started 61 of 64 games for the Bills and plays at a consistently high level. Stud LT’s are hard to come by (even rarer to see them test the market as such), and he’ll be paid like one.

With all that said, this next group represents the “second tier” of talent that may be available this March. Keeping with the “realistic” theme we’ve been preaching, I’d like to see Reggie land one, perhaps two, of these names noted below:

Malik Jackson – Only 26, Jackson’s best football is still ahead of him. The Broncos opted to pay teammate Derek Wolfe, and with Von Miller’s anticipated payday along with other financial question marks, it wouldn’t surprise if Malik Jackson was a casualty. He’s worth the coin, showing he can play inside or kick out to the edge. With that said, Broncos GM John Elway has done well when it comes to managing the cash, and keeping talent around.

Tashaun Gipson and Eric Weddle – It’s no secret that the Raiders need help in their secondary. This was the clear weakness and one of the worst groups in the entire league. A complete revamp is necessary and as such, Del Rio and Co. need to bank on a stud free agent as well as some addition(s) in the spring via the draft. It can all start with Tashaun Gipson and/or Eric Weddle.

Gipson’s the one to target based on age alone — he doesn’t turn 26 until August of this year. A playmaker who may now be flying under the radar after banging up his PCL/MCL in 2014, he’s been outspoken in the recent past about looking to ball elsewhere. Raider fans should temper expectations here, as Ray Horton is now back in the building coaching under Hue Hackson. Gipson enjoyed his killer 2013 season under Horton.

We then turn to Weddle’s beard. Eric and the Chargers’ front office don’t exactly see eye-to-eye, and the two are headed for a split as a result. While we know the headlines here and the level of play that he’s capable of, many are turned off as he now enters his age 31 season. For me, I see a hungry veteran, if that isn’t cliché enough. The Raiders’ need talent and leadership in the secondary, which is exactly what you’re getting in Eric Weddle, even on the wrong side of 30. A Fontana kid himself, I’d like to think he’s at the top of McKenzie’s list.

Another name to watch for is current Bengal George Iloka. With an injury history of his own, I’d simply prioritize the two aforementioned names. Oakland needs help – and bad – so you’d happily take what you can get in the end. He’ll play ball this season at only 26 years old, and you could do a lot (a lot) worse than kicking the tires here.

Trumaine Johnson – Luckily for the Raiders, they stumbled on a pretty solid crop of both free agent DB’s and an incoming draft class with solid depth. As far as free agents are concerned, the Rams’ Trumaine Johnson is easily at the top of my list. Johnson checks in at 6’2” and finished the 2015 season 3rd in INT’s with 7. I suppose you can’t go wrong with the likes of Prince Amukamara, Sean Smith, or even his teammate Janoris Jenkins (again, you take what you can get at this point), but I just love how Johnson plays. The arrow is pointing all the way up.

With that said, the Rams have some pesos to spend themselves, and Johnson just turned 26. He may not even get the chance to test the waters. Ian Wharton dropped this great piece on why he thinks Johnson’s the “hidden gem” in this year’s free agent class. If he does find himself on the open market, I imagine he’ll have a handful of teams lined up for his services.

Mitchell Schwartz – Set to turn 27 in June, Mitchell Schwartz could be the answer McKenzie and the Raiders have been looking for at RT for season(s) now. Outside of the play in the secondary, the right side of the offensive line proved to be one of the biggest problem spots for Oakland in 2015. Arguably the NFL’s best RT, he picked a great time to have the best season of his career. Run back the game against Von and the Broncos if you don’t believe me. Big Mitch shut Miller down for a single pressure on the day (coming in, he lead the league with 8 pressures/game).

If the Browns prefer to hold on to Schwartz, you’re probably looking at current Bengal Andre Smith next. My guy Mr. Goodberry profiled him here, and sums up his situation heading into free agency. There’s some potential value, but as Joe points out, he’s 29 with injury concerns. Buyer beware — I’m more comfortable turning to the draft at this point. To fill out that right side, Alex Boone would fit at guard. Coming off a MCL tear, and even at age 28, he’s an upgrade at that RG spot for the Raiders. Lastly, Kelechi Osemele is another name to keep an eye on given Baltimore’s current cap situation. I’m not quite sure there’s a fit at RG but he’s shown his versatility last season. He’ll be coveted by many teams and looking for premiere tackle money I assume.

Ladarius Green – The tight end for the Chargers not named Antonio Gates, fantasy football fans have been betting on Green’s emergence for multiple seasons now, much to their frustration. That may all come to end, however, as Green’s a free agent heading into 2016. Gates can’t play forever as La Canfora points out, and tabs Green as the one free agent San Diego can’t let walk. The Chargers have largely ignored Green’s potential in the past, so it’ll be interesting to see how they view him going forward. The soon-to-be 26 year old, 6’6″ 240 mismatch is coming off of ankle surgery, which may complicate the Chargers’ decision.

These next couple players won’t be added to the roster, but they’re personal favorite’s in interesting spots so I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention them:

Arian Foster – Early reports indicate that Foster’s time is up in Houston. Many fans called for Marshawn’s return home to Oakland before he announced his retirement during the Super Bowl. I’m fully aware that the Raiders currently roster Latavius Murray, coming off a “Pro Bowl” season at that. I’m also aware of Foster’s injury history, which doesn’t exactly work in his favor. I’m not suggesting that McKenzie breaks the bank to secure Foster’s spot in Oakland, however, I do see a potentially low risk/very high reward-type scenario here. When and if he’s healthy, for my money, I think you’re (still) getting a top 5 running back — obviously that’s a big “if”.

Honestly, none of this free agent running back talk matters if this front office believes a certain someone is hanging around at 14. More on that at a later date, though.

ZekePM

Kam Chancellor – Mr. Brian Nemhauser over at HawkBlogger does not anticipate Chancellor returning in 2016. Many will argue that Kam’s on the decline, as Brian himself touches on. While the tackles are down (he did miss 5 games in 2015), at the end of the day, his All-Pro level of play simply wasn’t there. Is it gone for good? Perhaps. Am I passing on Kam if he’s dangled out there by the Seahawks? Absolutely not.

He’s still a force, and would provide a huge boost in the secondary (we’ll miss you Charles). If Kam can be had for a 3rd round selection, I’m all over it. While the connection with defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. is there (check out number 8 on Brian’s list), Raiders’ General Manager Reggie McKenzie covets each and every one of his draft picks, making this scenario even more unlikely.

Oh, and this:

The Draft

I won’t spend too much time detailing why you should like these players listed below. Not here and not now, at least. I hope to have some reports done on at least a few of my personal favorites before draft week.

Regarding the 14th overall pick: this is somewhat uncharted territory for the Raiders. Going back 10 years, Oakland’s found themselves inside the top 10 (and for the most part, making some poor decisions along the way):

2006 – Michael Huff (01.07)

2007 – JaMarcus Russell (01.01, and shut up in advance)

2008 – Darren McFadden (01.04)

2009 – Darrius Heyward-Bey (01.07)

2010 – Rolando McClain (01.08)

2011 – No Selection (thanks for the memories, Richard Seymour)

2012 – No Selection (appreciate your time, Carson Palmer)

2013 – D.J. Hayden (traded down from 01.03 to 01.12, like that makes this any better)

2014 – Khalil Mack (01.05)

2015 – Amari Cooper (01.04)

Anyway, now that I’ve relived some of the most depressing times in my recent football life (2014 and 2015 have made things a bit better), let’s see what 2016 has to offer (ranked accordingly).

Myles Jack – OLB, California, Los Angeles – Top 5 player in this class for me. Jack is super-athletic (insert whatever “high energy” jargon you prefer here) even coming off the knee injury. You can let him work from the middle, or put him outside and allow him to create. He can do it all. I’d be shocked if Myles fell outside of the top 10. If he’s there at 14, I can guarantee you that I will not have my pants on.

JackPM

Ezekiel Elliott – RB, Ohio State – Most casual fans see Elliott, take a look at the Raiders roster, see Murray, and proceed to roll their eyes. I’m here to tell you Elliott’s special (and Latavius Murray, despite the Pro Bowl season, may not be the answer). I fell in love with Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott is approaching that kind of evaluation for me. Another top 5 player in this 2016 class, Elliott has a chance to be the best player available when McKenzie’s on the clock. Rolling out Carr, Cooper, and Elliott in 2016? Hold me.

Jaylon Smith – MLB, Notre Dame – Another talented LB with injury questions? Neat. Jaylon Smith would easily find himself in the top 5 if that knee blowout didn’t look as gruesome as it did in his bowl game. Turns out, it might not be? A few reports have backed down off of initial observations and concerns, and the outlook appears “brighter” for Smith going forward — take that for whatever it’s worth. I know a few people smarter than I that had him in the number one overall discussion when he was healthy. He’s that good, folks.

Vernon Hargreaves III – CB, Florida – Questions about Vernon’s size will follow him leading up to the draft. More importantly, many will wonder if he passes McKenzie’s threshold for CB’s (Reg has a type they say). While I respect the parameters he’s put in place – referencing the selections in Oakland and during his time in Green Bay – I’d like to think you make exceptions for talent. While it’s close between him and Mackensie Alexander, VH3 is your CB1.

Noah Spence – EDGE, Eastern Kentucky – Spence found himself in the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Ever since being removed from Urban’s squad, all reports suggest he’s done an excellent job rebuilding and maintaining a clean image. If his showing at the Senior Bowl is any indication, he’ll be gone somewhere inside the top 10. With Justin Tuck retiring, and Aldon Smith’s future up in the air, it’d be wise to address the pass rush early.

Mackensie Alexander– CB, Clemson – Similar size/threshold questions can be applied here. As noted above, it’s very close between Alexander and Hargreaves for CB1 honors. The secondary desperately needs to be address, fans should be excited if either Hargreaves or Alexander are available when 14 rolls around.

Other names to consider: Robert Nkemdiche (I know, red flags all over the place), Darian Thompson, DeForest Buckner, and some of the talented DL this class will provide (Andrew Billings and Sheldon Rankins come to mind immediately). If Ronnie Stanley is coolin’ at 14, I think he’s in the discussion as well (again, depending where things end up with Donald Penn).

Outlook

Super Bowl.

AmariPM

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