Hau’oli Kikaha and Examining the Fine Print

When a rookie enters the league with a habit for creating splash plays the rest of the league takes notice. Hau’oli Kikaha has 4 sacks in 6 games, tied for 11th in the league, which has been more than enough to attract the attention. Entering the league as a second round pick, Kikaha’s expectations may have been high, but not nearly this high. Even Kikaha’s biggest fans would have thought an 11 sack season, which is the pace he is on, to be the best case scenario.

If Kikaha’s production comes as a surprise, then it may be because the context behind it is being overshadowed. The splash plays and other evidence of a good edge rusher are there on the surface, but preoccupation with the flash can prevent us from considering the fine print. Whether Kikaha’s production is due to consistent disruption, his ability to convert pressures into sacks efficiently, or string of fluky situations, it prompts a further look into his rookie season.

Diving into Kikaha’s Pressure Production numbers will provide us a clearer picture on if his production is sustainable or if it is simply a fluke.

In three the three games of Hau’oli Kikaha charted so far (vs Arizona, Carolina, and Atlanta) he has registered 3 sacks and his 18.8% Pressure Conversion Rate is second only to Bud Dupree’s 23.1%. His Average Time to QB of 3.17 seconds, though, seems to indicate that the pressures where he reached the quarterback are due to poor quarterback play or coverage on the back end than they are to Kikaha’s own merit. Both of these metrics, when combined, give a strong indication that Kikaha’s sack total is a misleading measure of his play this season.

Kikaha’s Cumulative Success Rate only does more to confirm this initial observation. A success rate of 25% is not only less than would be expected from a player with 4 sacks, but it is the second worst out of the 22 players charted. If you are weeding out attempts where Kikaha faced double teams, a situation where even the best edge rushers rarely have success, his success rate drops to 28.1%. When comparing this number against One v One Success Rates for the other 21 players, it is still the second worst out of the group.

These success rates paint a much clearer picture of the player Kikaha has been early in his career than his sack total does. Now that we have evidence that points to a disappointing start from Kikaha, it may be helpful to examine the specific areas where he is doing damage and those he is being consistently stopped.

Kikaha’s Edge Rushing Success Rate of 22.8% is once again second worst out of the 22 players charted and his Interior Rushing Success Rate of 42.9% is fifth best out of the 22 players charted. While only 7 out of Kikaha’s 64 pass rush attempts, or 10.8%, have been to the interior of the offensive line, 18.8% percent of his pressures have come from those attempts. The data appears to show that the Saints should try and consistently use Kikaha in versatile fashion instead of forcing him into a role that he isn’t suited for at this point in his career.

The Reason for Pressure chart for Kikaha provides one more layer of information that could be useful to contextualizing Kikaha’s performance. The comparison between Kikaha’s unearned pressures (resulting from coverage or being unblocked) and earned pressures (plays where the edge rusher directly beats the offensive lineman blocking him) provide a final damning piece of evidence. 25% of Kikaha’s pressures are unearned, a rate that is 6th highest out of the 22 players charted. Having an Unearned Pressure Rate as high as Kikaha does and a Cumulative Success Rate as low as he does, is about the strongest evidence that can make the case for Kikaha having a disappointing season up to this point.

The sacks are there for Hau’oli Kikaha, and his ability to convert his pressures into sacks is certainly a good building block to success, but he doesn’t have the consistent underlying performance to match. This doesn’t mean that all is said and done for Kikaha, though. Many times when a rookie starts off their career in disappointing fashion, football twitter is quick to write them off. If anything, this slow start means that Kikaha is right on track with what many of us thought.

When only looking at Kikaha’s surface production, it may seem like he has been hyper-productive early in his career. An examination of the fine print, however, clearly shows that Kikaha has been unable to consistently create pressure on the quarterback.