Examining Bud Dupree's Early Career Success

The NFL is separated into two position groups. No, not offense and defense; “creators” and “preveners”. It was Eric Stoner (@BeauxJaxson on twitter) who first came up with the creators-preventers theory. Creators are positions such as offensive skill players, defensive linemen, and edge rushers. who, for lack of a better explanation, are tasked with creating for their team. Preventers are offensive lineman and defensive backs (off-ball linebackers can fit into either category based on situation), who are tasked with preventing creators from making plays.

By the nature of football, creators are more valuable to teams than preventers are. Thus, when they are still at the high school level, the best athletes are slotted as creators. One of the elite athletes in the 2015 draft was an edge rusher from Kentucky by the name of Bud Dupree. Dupree was one of the best athletes in the class and he is also one of the best edge rusher athletes to come into the NFL since 2005.

05-14 1st round EDGE in order of Waldo EXP. Top 6: Mack, Merriman, Orakpo, Watt, Perry & Mario. Dupree is red circle.pic.twitter.com/u2LTvWWNnx

— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) February 26, 2015

As this tweet from Justis Mosqueda from just after the combine points out, Dupree is the most explosive edge rusher to enter the league since 2004. That elite athleticism provides a high ceiling for Dupree, but it also had many questioning his ability to make an immediate impact in the league. In college Dupree had a tendency to rely on his athletic ability instead of developing his skills in other areas, which is why he had limited expectations coming into the league.

So far, on the surface at least, Bud Dupree seems to have dispelled those concerns. Through 8 games so far this season, Dupree has accrued 4 sacks. That number places him in the top 30 in the league. For a player who wasn’t expected to produce much early in his career, that seems to be quite an achievement. Taking a look at Dupree’s Pressure Production results can give us a clearer picture on how he has performed early in his career.

At first look, Dupree’s Pressure Production results don’t paint the same picture, but after a close look, the differences become much more minute.

Looking at Dupree’s situational success rates, he is much more successful when rushing on the edge than to the inside. Dupree has an Edge Success Rate of 34%, while only sporting and Inside Success Rate of 0%, although he has a rather limited number of attempts on the inside. Contextually this makes sense. Interior offensive linemen are harder for Dupree to overpower with his natural strength, so he has to lean on his more limited technical skills. Dupree has also accumulated every one of his pressures when facing single blockers, while he is 0-for-3 when facing double teams. Dupree’s cumulative success rate of 30.2% is sub-par compared to the rest of the sample, coming up 19th out of the 21 players charted, but considering that I have focused on charting the better edge rushers in the league, Dupree’s results don’t look so bad.

The Reason for Pressure portion of Dupree’s chart paints a very clear picture of who he is as a player. 13 of his 16 pressures, or 81.3%, came from either speed rushes, bull rushes, or a good initial jump at the snap. That makes sense when considering Dupree’s expectations when coming into the league. One of the things Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass on twitter) mentioned when I was talking with him about Dupree is that he thinks Dupree’s success is because he is able to take advantage of small mistakes from offensive tackles. Dupree’s lack of polish may keep him from winning in more intricate ways, but his athleticism allows him to take advantage of any minute mistake an offensive tackle makes. You may hold him in check for his first 10 attempts of the game, but as soon as you take one misstep or get your hands up too slow, Dupree’s athleticism and forward approach will allow him to take advantage.

What really stands out about Dupree is his ability to convert pressures into sacks. While many may credit sack conversion ability to random occurrence for the most part, I believe it is a real and valuable trait for a player to have. Dupree’s Conversion Rate of 18.8% is tied for the best among all 21 players charted and the reason for that success can be attributed in part to his athleticism. Dupree possesses elite explosion that gives him the closing speed to chase down quarterbacks and, despite having a lack of polish in other areas of his game, shows good discipline when facing quarterbacks in the open field or broken pocket.

So far in Bud Dupree’s career the Steelers have, surprisingly, used him very effectively. They haven’t asked him to take on too much responsibility and allow him to take his forward approach on pass rushes. This smart coaching has rewarded them with production from their rookie pass rusher that most would not have expected. Dupree is quite literally too athletic not to be successful in some form in the NFL.

When taking into account Dupree’s elite athleticism, the technical improvement he has already shown, and the Steelers’ knowledge of how to correctly use him, I feel confident that Dupree will eventually become an elite player. It may take some time, but the Steelers seem to have found their next great edge rusher.